The answer is found in the numbers, and the contrast between the unscientific garbage polls the mainstream media likes to put out and the more sophisticated internal polling that campaigns like Hillary's and Trump's run in 'battleground states' such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. And these, like the thousands mobbing Trump wherever he goes, tell a very different story than what the Democratic party operatives with press passes would have you believe.
The defeat of Kansas Congressman Tim Huelskamp, an outspoken "NeverTrump" #CruzCrew tea party Republican in this week's primary election may be the first of many warnings that a Trump wave is coming. Huelskamp, as the Conservative Treehouse blog noted, lost by a greater margin than he was allegedly leading in the polls conducted as recently as July 15. Despite the furious #NeverTrump tweeting of the #CruzCrew on Twitter, it would seem Sen. Ted Cruz lacks serious coattails or pull with GOP voters across the country.
Whether House Speaker Paul Ryan can hold off pro-Trump businessman Paul Nehlen in their Wisconsin primary on Tuesday August 9 is being closely watched to determine if anti-Trump Establishment figures will be punished by the voters, or if the people really do care about media manufactured controversies like Saudi visa attorney Khizr Khan exploiting his dead son's memory to attack Trump's (fully Constitutional) proposal to restrict immigration from countries in the Middle East effected by terrorism.
Again, we return to the Russia Analyst's question: if Trump is about to be absolutely crushed and these polls are accurate, why are the talking heads on CNN so scared? Why all the nervous laughter and Twitter echo-chambering from the same type of people who thought Brexit unthinkable? Why the continued hysterics about Trump being Putin's candidate when it's Billary and the Clinton Foundation, not Trump, that took tens of millions in payoffs to sell a large chunk of America's uranium mining deposits to Russian oligarchs linked to the Kremlin?
Conservative Treehouse has the answer...the Hillary camp knows their internal polls are bad and will only get worse once Trump starts bombarding her with #CrookedHillary attack ads in key states. The claims that Trump wants to back out of presidential debates due to his complaints that they conveniently coincide with prime time NFL football games are a smokescreen for Hillary's handlers worries that she will either breakdown or have a seizure exposing her serious health problems under the bright lights.
Expressed succinctly, the models upon which even 'scientific' polling samples are based rely on sampling of the electorates of 2008 and 2012. This is precisely what caused much ballyhooed election analyst Nate Silver's statistical predictions to be off during the 2014 mid-terms, when the Democrats got shellacked. Black voters for one, the most reliable Democratic constituency, are not going to turn out for Hillary Clinton in nearly the same numbers as they did for Barack Obama. Since a great deal of the voter fraud that puts Democrats over the top in swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin happens in heavily urbanized African American areas, this effects the Democrats' ability to 'calibrate' the voting machines and not produce laughably implausible turnout numbers. Especially in inner cities and old suburbs where there not only aren't that many registered Democratic voters, but where there may not even be that many adult people.
What the Dems and the globalist Establishment trying to rig the election for Hillary! as Trump hinted at this past week are up against is a tsunami of downward-ly mobile, formerly middle class or soldily working class voters. The majority of whom are white but judging by the growing number of Hispanics at Trump rallies, this tidal wave also includes Latinos who have seen their own living standards erode if not crumble since 2008. This effect, according to the Conservative Treehouse, is much bigger than a mere 'enthusiasm gap' between higher turnout and independent voting on the GOP than the Democratic side of this year's primaries:
"Back in February 2016, after compiling approximately two years of semi-quantifiable voter trend and sentiment data, the first four GOP primary races were held: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada."
"That was the first time we were able to overlay the non quantifiable (sentiment data assembly) with the empirical results of four primary contests."
"You might remember we found a jaw-dropping trend that was narrowing toward one possible reasonable conclusion; but we didn’t want to get out in front of our skis, so we asked a professional statistician to review –then summarize– our model."
[…] In 2008 21.9 million Republicans voted in the primary and 58.1 million voted in the general election (265% increase). In 2012 19.2 million primary -vs- 59.2 million in the general (308% increase).
If those increases are even remotely maintained given the scope of the current increase in Republican Primary participation, the general election vote would be through the roof.
And here is where you begin to understand the potential scope of the 2016 primary voter for the Republican nominee, Donald J Trump. This is the bottom line the media and establishment republicans do not want to see discussed. This is the potential for the “Trump Effect”:
"That jaw-dropping number, 7.2 million more potential votes than Barack Obama carried in 2008 and almost 13 million more than Mitt Romney carried in 2012, is the least result achievable when you turn out THE MONSTER VOTE."
"Remember, this same predictive model NAILED the turnout on both the GOP Primary side and the Democrat primary side. – SEE HERE–"
"What the New York Times is statistically beginning to quantify is the existence of The Monster Vote. If you look closely at the data behind their newly discovered 10 million potential/predictable voters, you’ll notice the additional votes carry to exactly what we predicted in February."
Even if Republican projection turnout was off by 5 million votes, Trump still wins in a landslide. Heck, even if the projection turnout was off by a staggering 10 million votes, the republican nominee (Trump) would still gets more votes than President Obama did in 2012 and it is highly doubtful Hillary could turn out that level of support. –link–
"♦ Even the fact the NYT would write such an article tells you there are interests (financial interests, globalists) who are looking closely and trying to quantify the challenge they have in front of them."
"♦ Remember, even in honest scientific polling – the poll methodologies are based on “assumptions”, or inputs into the collected poll samples in order to make them representative of the anticipated turnout."
"♦ Thanks to Donald Trump, historic turnout trends are obsolete. Additionally, historic demographics and party affiliations are also obsolete; And, more importantly, as a consequence…."
"..any poll data that is relying on obsolete sample methodology is going to be significantly inaccurate."
Ultimately, as V the Guerrilla Economist says, people aren't necessarily voting for Donald Trump because they agree with everything he says. What they are doing instead is voting against an Establishment they hate and which they now understand overtly hates them. What the mainstream media led by CNN is doing thus is trying to deflect popular anger against the Establishment and Hillary Clinton, and redirect it towards Donald Trump, the Russians, and or Trump's allegedly knuckle dragging Ku Klux Klansmen voters.
Like our Simian leader the Guerrilla, the Russia Analyst is confident this won't work. If the Establishment is going to put the most hated woman in America in the White House, it is going to have to engage in the most dishonest, propagandistic, and fraud-ridden campaign in American history. That means revealing the fascist fangs long hidden beneath the Republicrat/Democan masks, and when as Gerald Celente says all else fails, they will take us to war, either with the nuclear armed to the teeth Russians and Chinese, or more likely with each other as a cold civil war flares into hot clashes. And THAT ultimately will prove to be a Pyrrhic victory for the globalists. - JWS