Straight from Former Swiss Military Consultant The Saker:
Why Russia Bombing Syrian Targets from Hamedan is a Game Changing Accelerant
The response from Washington this week has been mostly weak carping about how Iran's post 1979 Islamic Revolution forbids the basing of foreign troops on Iranian soil. Since Moscow and Tehran both insist the Russian bomber group's deployment is temporary and not permanent, and defeating ISIS while preserving an ally in Syria is widely viewed as a strategic imperative for the Islamic Republic, such whining is unlikely to get much traction with the Iranian people. Here's what my White Russian Floridian friend The Saker had to say about this development in an interview with Sputnik International:
Iran Must Send More Quality Troops to Fight in Syria in Order to Achieve Significant Battlefield Successes Ahead of 2017 Peace Talks to Resolve the Conflict
The quid pro quo implied in stepped up Russian air strikes carpet bombing Daesh and Jaesh al Fatah/ex-Al Nusra is Iran sending more competent IRGC or regular army troops to fight in Syria -- not just the often poorly trained Afghan Shi'a militias it has preferred to arm and advise. Granted the use of more Iranian troops implies taking casualties, as Israel and the U.S. always seem to supply very up to date SIGINT/ELINT collection to their proxies as to where the Farsi speakers are on the battlefield. But Langley is quickly learning proxy war goes both ways as the Houthis kill more Saudi soldiers inside Saudi Arabia with hidden support from Iranian, Russian and Chinese intelligence. For every TOW sent by the CIA and Riyadh to their 'moderate' Syria Salafists, there's an Iranain Toophan (TOW knockoff) or Konkurs/Kornet anti-tank missile ready to be delivered to the Houthis via Oman and the always present 'cigarette/qat boats' along the Aden/Gulf of Oman coast through a porous Saudi/GCC naval blockade.
China Stepping Up Its Military Aid to Assad Sends A Strong Message to Washington from the South China Sea to the Mediterranean Sea
China's enhanced military to military cooperation with the Assad government, already visible through the deployment of Chinese Humvee equivalents and other equipment by the SAA, also greately complicates any neolibcon plans for 'limited' strikes on Damascus forces. It's one thing for ex-CIA Deputy Director Michael Morell to threaten Russian and Iranian troops in Syria with death delivered via Langley proxies, and quite another for Washington to 'inadvertently' kill advisers sent by one of Washington's leading creditors and trade partners in China. Simply put, the Dragon has the power to inflict economic pain on Langley's Wall Street banker buddies at Goldman Sachs to a far greater extent than Russia can.
While the Russia Analyst's 2015 forecast that Beijing could get directly involved in dropping bombs on Syria has not yet come to pass, what we're seeing is the Chinese stopping just short of that threshold. China is sending arms, People's Liberation Army veteran or intelligence officer 'Dragonwater' private military contractors or 'volunteers' to fight Uighur jihadists alongside the Kurds, and now advisers. Presumably Beijing's military advisers are already or soon will be based out of Moscow's Khmeimim Air Base, as Dr. Ben Carson leaked during one of the GOP debates last autumn:
Lameduck Golfer Obama and Low Energy Hillary Look Pathetic and Weak
What has the 'Assad must go' neolibcons in a panic is simple. The 'correllation of forces' as the Soviets would've said is getting worse for them in the Middle East by the day. Broadening the use of Iraqi air space by the Russians and Iranians and China's announcement that it is sending the Syrian Arab Army military as well as humanitarian aid demonstrate the Eurasian axis is aiming for a decisive outcome in Syria in 2016. That is, before the next anointed President/War Queen of the United States Hillary Rotten Clinton can interfere after January 20, 2017. A lame duck Obama Administration, already caught lying over the release (illegal ransom payment) of $400 million in frozen Iranian funds on the same day four Americans were released by Tehran, is hardly in the position to suddenly turn more war-like when it has proven to be so weak.
While often overstated in U.S. politics, 'I feel your pain' optics at times of disaster and national upheaval do matter, both at home and via perceptions of American policies abroad. Think back to President Reagan's decision to fire striking air traffic controllers and how that impressed the Soviets that he would be a tough negotiator in the early 1980s. While Donald J. Trump is visiting the flood ravaged people of Louisiana and delivering an 18-wheeler load of supplies to the victims, Obama is off golfing at Martha's Vineyard and Hillary Clinton is 'phoning it in' as her rapidly deteriorating health continues to be farcically denied by the lugenpresse. Don't think that Chinese leaders, who themselves often appear alongside Peoples Liberation Army soldiers and volunteers sandbagging along flooding rivers to enhance their image of unity between people and Chinese Communist Party, don't pay attention to such details.
The Trumpening and the Limits of the Establishment's Power
Washington seems to find its hands tied or increasingly limp as we enter an election season in which the neolibcon hawks' preferred candidate, Hillary Rodham Clinton appears to be barely functional if not borderline catatonic at times. Unless the Democrats have some secret brilliant plan to push forward the colorless hack Tim Kane as their standard bearer, the time to change horses in midstream and put Kane's name on the ballot as the Democratic nominee rather than Clinton's appears to be running out in most states. The tone of the mainstream media, convinced it had crippled Trump's candidacy with a series of manufactured scandals like the 'gold star father Khan' controversy as well as the predictable scandal of The Donald's campaign manager Paul Manafort having worked as a consultant for the U.S./EU overthrown Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, appears more shrill and desperate as possible presidential debate/s approach.
Stepping back from the election circus to the real '4th branch' of the U.S. government, tensions within the Pentagon and intelligence community 'Deep State' between hardliners determined to prolong the Syrian war and press the attack against Russia, Iran and to a lesser extent China and foreign policy realists persist. As my friend The Saker said in this week's interview with Sputnik, major parts of the American government or Deep State all seem to have their own, sometimes uncoordinated foreign policies. The CIA seems to have one policy, State and its superhawks and increasingly politicized neolibcon foreign service officers another, and the Pentagon has yet another approach to the world via attaches, military exchanges and arms sales. When operating together these various parts of the imperial apparatus remain a superpower, but as America's superpower status deteriorates along with the overall competency and trust in the authorities, like various parts of the same digestive tract failing to operate together the result is gas, pain and stress for the body politic.
The Obama White House has one (obviously feckless) foreign policy, Obama and Hillary's patron George Soros as revealed from his Open Society organization's hacked emails dumped online this week by the mysterious D.C. Leaks organization, appears to wage his own 'soft power' Cold War against Russia. Soros organizations do this in tandem with and parallel to official Washington's goals (for example, discrediting Russophile politicians and media outlets in EU/German occupied Greece). We'll have more to write about the Soros leaks in the near future, including the leaked minutes of Soros' meeting with then U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Geoff Pyatt which apparently show the Obama White House and Democratic Party kingpin telling Pyatt what to do about the newfangled American satrapy that was and is post-Maidan Ukraine. Suffice to say, retired KGB/SVR Lt. Gen. Leonid Rashetnikov and other Russian Deep Staters assumption that figures like Pyatt and Undersecretary of State Victoria Nuland are merely errand boys and girls for those who exert real power behind the scenes
A House Divided Cannot Stand...America's Fractious Deep Staters
Meanwhile the CIA and NSA seem to be in chaos, with the latter Agency subject to its most humiliating insider leak since Snowden as Ft. Meade's prized TAO zero day exploit hacking tools and malware codes are spilled online and bitcoin auctioned to the highest bidder.
More leaks embarrassing to the CIA regarding its ties to jihadist terrorists, if not direct arming and funding of ISIS, would appear to be pending, particularly after ex-DDCI's 'kill Russians' remarks on the Charlie Rose show.
A Nasty October Surprise Involving a False Flag or Contrived Combat with the Russians?
As the brilliant and controversial Eurasianist ideologue Alexander Dugin recently said, the Empire of Chaos is wounded but still dangerous from Moscow's point of view. Dugin and expat Russia watchers such as Dances with Bears independent journalist John Helmer have both warned, that October surprise(s) involving attempts to get U.S. and Russian forces directly engaged at close quarters or provoke combat between them from Syria to the Crimean Black Sea coast cannot be excluded. This week's fighting between pro-Assad government Assyrians and Arabs against a U.S. Special Forces trained Kurdish faction in the town of Hasakah far from the frontlines of Aleppo, which involved U.S. jets supposedly scaring off the Russian backed Syrian Arab Air Force, may be one step towards such provocations.