The news out of the Middle East this weekend is reminiscent of the Biblical verse of Joel 3:14, "Multitudes in the valley of decision". In one direction is the resolution or at least deescalation of the five-years long Syria war in favor of Assad, Russia and Iran. At the other end of the valley bounded by cliffs of history and hate is a much larger war, albeit one that won't necessarily lead to 'World War III' as certain alternative media alarmists always immanentize as the Eschaton. According to Bloomberg Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan would clearly like to keep his options open and is hinting at going either way, depending on whether Washington asks. But who is really calling the shots in Washington, if it isn't the lame duck President Barack Obama?
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said his country shouldn’t repeat in Syria the same mistake it made when it turned down a U.S. request to join the coalition that toppled Saddam Hussein.
Gulf states, meanwhile, said they’d send ground troops into Syria, where military gains led to the breakoff of already troubled peace talks between the government and rebels.
“We don’t want to fall into the same mistake in Syria as in Iraq,” Erdogan said, recounting how Turkey’s parliament denied a U.S. request to use its territory for the 2003 invasion of Iraq. “It’s important to see the horizon. What’s going on in Syria can only go on for so long. At some point it has to change,” he told journalists on the return flight from a tour of Latin America, according to Hurriyet newspaper.
Anyway You Look at It, Mr. Erdoğan, You Lose
Erdoğan's sudden claim that Turkey made a mistake by staying out of the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq and not permitting Turkish territory to be used by American ground forces comes after a group of Ecuadorian activists including a member of Quito's parliament were severely beaten by his thuggish security detail. Turkey is not yet a full blown pariah nation, but between the European Right that detests Erdoğan as a neo-Ottoman Muslim Brotherhood fanatic and the worldwide Left that sympathizes with the Kurdish cause, plus the collapse of its trade with Russia and tourism business, the Turks must be feeling the pressure. But as with Russians rallying around Putin and their government in hard economic times which are being blamed on the West's sanctions, it isn't certain that an even greater destabilization awaiting Turkey will lead to Erdoğan's ouster -- or even widespread protests against his misrule. Instead nationalistic Turks may choose to blame the Jewish, Greek or Armenian lobbies in the West for betraying them to the tender mercies of Russia's tourism and agribusiness boycott -- as well as U.S. abandonment of the TOW jihadis in Syria which Langley and Ankara supported together.
Judging by an exasperated U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry telling members of the Saudi-funded anti-Assad 'opposition' on the sidelines of the talks in Geneva, "What do you want me to do? Go to war with Russia? Is that what you want? Don't blame me -- go and blame your opposition"...then Mr. Erdoğan clearly cannot expect a favorable answer from the White House to his request. Which would be for American GIs to act as human shields for a Turkish push into northern Syria, so that Turkey's 'humanitarian' convoys won't get bombed and rocketed by the Syrian and Russian Air Forces (though whether the Lebanese Hezbollah and their Iraqi Shi'a allies would abstain from ambushing Turkish/U.S. joint convoys there to 'fight ISIS' is an interesting question, one we hope never actually happens).
The Problems with a Turkish False Flag to Be Blamed on Russia
The only way one would expect Obama and Kerry to have a sudden change of heart is if the globalists who pull their strings can arrange some sort of major false flag to be blamed on Assad, Iran, or the Russians. Perhaps a false flag operation involving Soviet-made bombs purchased from Ukraine that when dropped on Turkish soil, especially a juicy target surrounded by Syrian women and children refugees, can be blamed on the heartless and cruel Russian Air Force.
The problem with that scenario of course, being that the Russians have anticipated it and carefully arranged the placement of numerous articles in their state media and in the alternative media warning of precisely such a provocation. If the Turks pull it off using a SU-25 jet the Ukrainians will have helpfully painted in Russia livery and with a camera crew waiting in precisely the best place to film this heinous 'Russian act of aggression against NATO territory', Moscow will be able to point to articles about a Ukrainian and Qatari aided Turkish false flag and say, 'We told you they would try this'.
Fighting Assad, Iran and Russia to the Last Turk: Why Erdoğan Is Cornered and May Lash Out But Hasn't Attacked Syria Yet
Or perhaps the plan all along has been to bring the Turkish and Saudi backed rebels to the brink of utter defeat, so that Erdoğan perceives that it's now or never to Turkish intervention, and then when the Russians crush the Turks exploit this defeat to remove Erdoğan from the picture. That in turn could pave the way for the Turks to grant de facto autonomy to Kurdish areas, which would then proceed to reunify with their brothers across the western drawn borders of Iraq and Syria. As a bonus, if Russia crushes the Turks and destroys their NATO standard equipment including F-16s in a rout, the NATO countries' military industrial complex can cite the defeat as a pretext for a massive new rearmament program, and one based on increasingly autonomous drones and armored combat robots to meet the 'awesome Russian threat'.
The wily Turks own perception of the fact that Israel connected neocons may wish to fight Russia, Iran and Assad to the last Turk would go a long way toward explaining why Turkey did NOT invade northern Syria outright well before the Russian Air Force entered the action. Even though the Turkish military would've met little resistance rolling all the way to Raqqa as the Daesh bags melted away or only pretended to fight, Hezbollah has proven its mettle bleeding Israeli occupiers before, and would do significant damage to the invading Turks. Although the Turkish army is considerably more competent than the Saudi military and National Guard, the lessons of Riyadh's failed occupation of Yemen have not been lost on the Turkish general staff. Nor are the Turks sufficiently foolish as to believe that all of the Arabs inside Syria, much less the Kurds, would accept their passage as liberators from both Daesh and Assad's army. As Southfront.org translator J. Hawk observes, in response to Viktor Kuzovkov's translated article "Is War Imminent?":
Now for reasons suggesting Turkey might be bluffing, in no particular order:
1. The effect on Turkey’s economy, which is already in a pretty weak position. Turkey waging a war outside of its borders would drive away foreign investment, crash its currency and stock market, and in general lead to popular discontent that might endanger Erdogan’s grip on power.
2. EU pressure. It’s doubtful that the EU wants to see a military escalation, and Turkey has to consider their opinion on the matter. Moreover, there are no indications EU is sending subtle hints or messages to Turkey encouraging it to invade, or to Russia warning of Turkish invasion.
3. No apparent US endorsement of Turkish incursion–the US pressure that compelled Turkey to withdraw from Iraq was indicative of US preferences, and in fact Turkey’s incursion into Iraq was likely intended as a precedent that could then be repeated in Syria. But the US didn’t want the Turks in Iraq and it probably doesn’t want them in Syria either.
4. Saudi opposition. These two powers are nothing more than allies of convenience. Each wants to dominate the region, neither wants to see the other do so, and if the two ever come in contact with one another, a clash is inevitable. The “intra-opposition” violence in Syria is largely along these lines, with Turkish-backed forces fighting Saudi-backed forces. Also note that the US endorsed the Saudi proposal to send troops to fight in Syria, which is probably a message to the Turks: you send troops in, and you’ll quickly see Saudis on the ground to limit how far you advance.
5. The denial of Open Skies overflight was to make it look like Turkey has something to hide, even though it doesn’t. We are also not seeing the Russian MOD publishing satellite photos of Turkish forces along the border, which it surely would have if such forces are massing in preparation for invasion.
6. Turkish troop movements may well be aimed at the Kurds, on both sides of the border. The recent fighting in Diyarbakir and other towns indicates there is a sizable anti-Kurdish operation under way, with nearly 1,000 Kurds killed in the last month or so. This operation, and the associated troop presence, may be due to the fear the Iraqi Kurds will hold a referendum on independence, which would naturally have a provocative on Turkey’s Kurdish population.
7. No official NATO sanction for even a no-fly zone, let alone ground presence.
8. Turkey has other effective and less provocative measures at its disposal. They include interfering with the Syria Express [harassment of Russian shipping through the Dardanelles without closing the Bosporus- JWS], launching a heavy artillery bombardment campaign of Syria from Turkish territory, infiltrating special operations units or organizing whole battalions and brigades of “volunteers” to fight on the militants’ side, and others. Such measures would provide plausible deniability in some cases, and force Russia to attack Turkish territory in others, which means they are preferable to an overland invasion that’s not sanctioned by the UN or even NATO. Yet for some reason Turkey has failed to adopt any of these options. Even its shelling of Syrian territory was quickly stopped. In the recent Su-34 incident, there was no apparent effort to attack the Russian plane. This remarkable restraint that’s accompanying belligerent rhetoric suggests that Erdogan feels he is considerably constrained by domestic and international factors.
9. No evidence of Russian military going to a higher state of alert, which would be the natural response to suspicion that Turkish incursion is imminent.
Erdoğan as the NWO's Duped Neo-Ottoman Muscle, and the New World Order Globalists as Keyser Söze
What exactly are those 'some reason/s' J. Hawk alludes to for the Turks not going ballistic or following up their shoot down of the Russian SU-24 on November 24 with even more grave attacks on the Russians? Besides fear of greater economic and military repercussions for Turkey?
The Turks must know that, although they have restored diplomatic relations with Israel that were broken over the Gaza flotilla raid of 2010, that the Israelis buy the bulk of their oil imports from the Kurds and that both in Washington and Tel Aviv there are powerful figures (including Vice President Joe Biden and Israeli cabinet ministers) calling for an independent Kurdistan to be formed at the expense of Turkish, Syrian and Iraqi territory. Thus Erdoğan has become a hostage to those with whom he partnered to destabilize Syria, neither able to safely retreat without a humiliating loss of face, nor able to go forward on the attack without the suspicion that a Turkish defeat at Russian hands is exactly what many players behind the scenes want. He is, in 'W's words, the political equivalent of a steer trapped in the slaughter chute with an electric cattle prod at his rear. In that sense, Erdoğan reminds me of the career criminals in 1995's The Usual Suspects, having the facts of their new indentured servitude to Keyser Söze explained to them by Kobayashi:
In this notorious scene from the crime noir movie, Erdoğan is now Dean Keaton (Gabriel Byrne), and the globalists who wish to re-format the Middle East centered around a newly declared state of Kurdistan are the unseen and fearsome Keyser Söze. Instead of threatening to kill Erdoğan's family as Kobayashi does to the usual suspects, the globalists threaten Erdoğan's political life and perhaps Turkish exports to the EU with boycott. That they can do this in the name of the freedom-loving, Western and Russian backed Kurds is quite ironic. The globalists also have the leverage of finding ways to bolster Russia's post-SU-24 shoot down Narrative, long denied by NATO sock puppets like @EUvsDisinfo or Politico, that Erdoğan and his son Bilal personally enriched themselves from the illegal trade in ISIS crude oil. They also know very well about Erdoğan and his cronies connection to the heroin trade in opiates flown out of Afghanistan to Europe via Turkish military bases.
That Erdoğan could retort to his media and to the Russian/Chinese/Iranian press that he was only acting on orders from Washington or Langley would not be particularly relevant. The Western MSM could be trusted to mostly ignore any Turkish counterclaims that they were 'only following orders' rather than being the masterminds of the great narco-terrorist nexus in the Mideast. And Erdoğan as well as his Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu can also be reminded of the great Anatolian tradition of military coups, and how many colonels and generals must have been seething for years, waiting for the right moment of revenge. In true false flag fashion the Mossad has enough Russian speakers to be deliberately overheard by Turkey's security services near Moscow's consulate in Istanbul, discussing how Russia would be favorably disposed toward restoring economic relations and even reviving Turkstream if Erdoğan is removed by the army. Wheels within wheels, plans within plans as the late science fiction author Frank Herbert would say.
A Luke Rudkowski video on the Kissinger-Putin meeting between 'old friends' in early February
Given these distressing facts, as well as the general detachment from reality of his nationalist supporters who probably assume the Turkish Army could victoriously march on the Khmeimim military airport outside Latakia without getting obliterated in conventional or nuclear strikes, Erdoğan is a cornered rat. He is encircled as effectively by his own neo-Ottoman rhetoric and posturing against Russia as the Jabhat al-Nusra rats he backed are in the kesselschlacht brewing outside Aleppo. And escalation by itself as a way out remains a very unappealing option. As Putin mused on camera several weeks ago to his Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, it would be a shame if Russia had to use tactical nuclear weapons against Daesh, by which of course he meant it would be a shame if Russia had to nuke Turkey or NATO in retaliation for a combined Turkish/US attack on the Russians main base in Syria. Cornered rats tend to lash out, if they perceive that they have nothing left to lose. But even if Mr. Erdoğan himself is no longer thinking rationally, that does not mean that the whole of the Turkish military or the country's oligarchs wish to follow him off the cliff like lemmings.
While we greatly respect 'W' opinions and insight, we would note that the Intelligence Insider has also said many times that the globalists were unable to effect the successful intervention they wanted in Syria on at least four occasions. Either Russian resistance under Vladimir Putin, China's rumored 'White Dragon families', or infighting in the globalists' lower ranks spurred by leaks from patriots inside the U.S. military-intelligence complex foiled them. If the globalists were the 'gods' or 'god kings' that they perceive themselves to be, Assad would have been deposed by direct Turkish and American intervention after the East Ghouta false flag chemical attack of autumn 2013, and the Saudis and Qataris would be building their Gazprom-undermining oil and gas pipelines to Europe through the Levant by now.
That these counterfactual scenarios have not come to pass suggests at least three possibilities:
1) the globalists 'house divided itself cannot stand' (Mark 3:22-27), and the Anglo-American New World Order conspiracy is falling apart after at least a century of plotting to reach this point. This is the position, as best we understand it, of the Guerrilla Economist, and to some extent, 'W' who says the globalists will fail in the end as they always do, even if Jesus Christ should tarry His return to Earth for more generations to come while 'end times' enthusiasts wrongly await their imminent rescue and neglect personal and spiritual preparations necessary to endure suffering and overcome the World.
2) There is no real division on end goals, only on strategies and which nations the NWO wishes to attach itself to as a parasite, with some higher faction of the globalists determined to abet the rise of the East overruling the lower ranking 'neocon/Western-centric' faction. Some in Russia and elsewhere allude to this as the 'Rockefellers (pro-Chinese and Russia friendly) versus Rothschilds' (old City of London/New York/Washington) thesis. The Corbett Report and Brandon Smith at Alt-Market have been among two of the most prominent advocates of this idea, warning freedom lovers not to rejoice at the humiliation of Washington's globalists in the Mideast as this is only the precursor for a new, Eurasian-driven NWO (and attempts by Washington tyrants to frame American patriots as fifth columnists for Russia or China when the real crackdown comes, see Smith's essay, "When War Erupts Patriots Will Be Accused of Aiding the Enemy").
In fairness to Smith, with the increasingly paranoid and desperate efforts by Washington to blame all right wing anti-immivasion and euroskeptic parties gaining support in Europe on overt or covert Kremlin funding, there is some evidence to support his thesis. On the other hand, attempts by various trolls and neocon sock puppets to "link" the Ron Paul movement to Russia simply because the elderly Texas Congressmen used to appear on RT before his 2012 presidential run never got any traction, even in the mainstream media.
3) Building on conclusion number one, that the NWO are men and not 'gods' as they claim, the setbacks they have faced and the growing resistance from those who are being 'awakened' to their designs around the world (including in the East) have forced them to re-evaluate their timetables, looking for better and more astrologically favorable milestone dates for their Masonic/Illuminist 'great work'.
The inability of Establishment candidates like Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, or Marco Rubio to muster much in the way of enthusiasm on either side of the aisle in this year's primaries would tend to bolster this thesis (a 'synthesis' of the first two arguments, in true Hegelian fashion :).
The mainstream media simply does not have the ability to play king maker that it once did, confounding even 'W's expectations of dual coronations of a Bush and a Clinton by the dying two party system.
The Internet has gone from being a thorn in the globalists' side to a serious threat against their ability to control the Narrative, as the arch-globalist consigliere Z. Brzezinski admitted just a few years ago. Given this distressing (to the New World Order) development, it's little surprise that social media platform makers like Twitter are starting to sacrifice their own user-friendliness and appeal to millions in order to push 'bad think' down in search results, without actually having to arbitrarily ban people or admit PC criteria is driving their decisions like Facebook's Merkel-requested ban on 'hate speech towards migrants' in Germany.
Erdoğan Will Look for a Way to 'Split the Baby' and Escalate Without Overtly Waging War and Invading Syria Outright
So to summarize the Russia Analyst's analysis of the Turkey-Russia standoff in Syria, we believe Erdoğan will attempt to copy what Vladimir Putin did in the Donbass when Russia's proxies were faced with a porous encirclement by Kiev's troops in August 2014 (though it should be pointed out here that the DNR/LNR were never as close to defeat as the Turkish/GCC-backed jihadis are in northern Syria today). Erdoğan will put out an APB and advertise enhanced bounties (complete with stipends to the families of fallen jihadis) to those Turks willing to fight in Syria as volunteers, particularly any Turks with prior Turkish army training. He will also end more MIT intelligence officers in to try and stop the panic and infighting among rebel units. Perhaps he will even allow his military to engage in limited cross border artillery firing against the advancing SAA -- and then howl when (Russian directed) Syrian counter-battery fire lands on Turkish soil that 'NATO is under Russian attack'.
The Saudis in turn, having already emptied their death rows and prisons in some cases with orders of 'fight in Yemen' or 'join Daesh' to convicts who don't want to be beheaded, will probably start offering Ukrainian volunteer battalion members or anyone else willing to fight the advancing SAA very lucrative stipends. After all the Saudis realize they're going broke funding two wars in Syria and Yemen, so what's a few more millions a month for mercenaries?
The sudden appearance of NATO Foreign Legionnaire Georgians, Ukrainians, Croats and many more 'ethnic Turkomen' who are actually active duty Turkish soldiers in Jabhat al-Nusra or Ahrar al-Sham's ranks on the battlefield will be explained away by Western MSM with an array of excuses. The neocon hipsters at Vice News or Buzzfeed can claim more 'Europeans are departing for the jihad in Syria' or 'Russia's bombing of civilians angered more Europeans who already didn't like what Putin was doing in Ukraine'.
If this is true then payback is likely, and we wouldn't want to be a CIA officer tasked with delivering TOWs to arms warehouses in Saudi Arabia...
Spy vs. Spy stuff: is this blurred out non-Arab white guy in the photograph a CIA officer? Are we on the verge of another Benghazi or American mercs/spooks who 'weren't there' coming back from Syria in body bags in retaliation for TOW jihadis killing Russians?
Conclusion: Erdoğan Will Try to Copy Putin's Playbook in the Donbass by Intervening Covertly, Rather Than Overtly
The Saudis and Turks will seek to place every advanced anti-tank weapon or imported Bulgarian rocket launcher they can into the hands of the retreating forces, and meanwhile instruct the likes of Michael D. Weiss and other neocon presstitutes to put out lurid stories about Russian generals, Hezbollah fighters and Iranian soldiers dropping like flies as the suddenly re-supplied and excellent intelligence-supplied TOW jihadis take them out. This is what Moscow-based Sputnik News analyst Andrew Korybko sees as the last Turkish gambit to be played in Syria, now that an overt invasion appears too risky for the Turks.
The goal will be to put sufficient pressure on Washington, perhaps accompanied by another string of spectacular terror attacks like Paris or San Bernadino, to finally accede to the Turks and neocons' demands for American human shields accompanying an 'anti-Daesh' coalition force. Whether the SAA and their Russian advisers wind up linking up with a sudden American/Turkish push, with Raqqa as the new Torgau on the Elbe, remains to be seen. The Russians seem well prepared for this possibility and are likely keeping a sudden assault on ISIS held Palmyra in their back pockets as a card to be played should another serious Daesh terror attack take place in the West and the MSM try to spin it as the result of 'Russia not fighting the Islamic State in Syria' while the U.S. and its coalition are actually doing so.
Russian military analysts like Crimea-based Col. Cassad continue to expect Obama to take at least some token action against Daesh involving ground troops headed into September or October, in a bid to bolster the Democrats image as 'tough on ISIS' and help Hillary Clinton's sagging, joyless campaign against the GOP nominee. But as we've observed above, the best laid plans of mice and men have a tendency to end up on the ash heap of history. While the globalists' may 'fail forward' in Syria, using some aspects of the Russian intervention to their advantage, they are in the final analysis (as the Guerrilla likes to say) still 'running to failure'.