Russia and Assad Are Winning -- How Will the Empire Strike Back?

A suicide bombing has killed or wounded scores of people in Ankara, the capitol of Turkey. Saturday's blast happened at a leftist protest against Erdoğan's hard line versus the Kurds. Qui bono? Could this be blowback from Turkey's not so secret support of ISIS, a Deep State false flag, or a warning? Perhaps from Ankara's 'partners' not to switch sides and join the Eurasian axis or at least become neutral towards Assad in the Syria conflict? [embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJARsuXZEF8[/embed]

Download the October 9, 2015 broadcast of V the Guerrilla Economist with the Russia Analyst

The Germany-based Moon of Alabama blog has these thoughts on the Ankara terrorist attack:

Two suicide bombers blew themselves up today at a rally of the Kurd friendly HDP party in Ankara. Some 90 people were killed and some 200 wounded. This is the biggest terrorist attack modern Turkey has ever seen. The Turkish government disconnected the country from Twitter and forbid any reporting about the terror attack. [one day after arresting a journalist just minutes after he criticized President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on air -- so much for NATO membership = democracy and freedumb - JWS]

The HDP party is leftist and supports a peaceful struggle for Kurdish autonomy. The militant Kurdish PKK in Turkey is currently fighting skirmishes with Turkish security forces in the east of the country. It has now announced that it will stop all attacks unless when it is attacked first. The sister organization of the PKK in Syria, the YPK, is currently fighting against the Islamic State. Erdogan's AK-Party and his government have supported the Islamic State and al-Qaeda in Syria. It sees the HDP party and the Kurds in general as its enemies. As one Turkish non-AKP politician said today, the bloody incident in Ankara was either a total Turkish intelligence failure or a Turkish intelligence operation.

Whatever else it was, the bombing, very likely by Islamic State suicide bombers, is a sign of an ongoing destabilization of Turkey. The instability will increase further until there is a major policy change and a complete crackdown on any support for the Jihadis in Syria as well as a complete closure of the Turkish-Syrian border.

Turkey is a Black Box Right Now -- Those in the Know Don't Talk and Those Who Don't Know Talk

The Russia Analyst, not being a specialist on Turkey or speaking the language cannot answer any of these questions. Probably the best source in the alternative media for what's going on inside Turkey is Sibel Edmonds, a former FBI translator who blew the whistle on Turkish, Pakistani, Saudi and Qatari intelligence services buying influence in Washington and Langley's pre and post-9/11 support for jihadists fighting the Russians in the Caucasus. Phillip Girardi, a former high ranking CIA officer who now serves on the Council for the National Interest, affiliated with the Nixon Center (think Henry Kissinger's) think tank, has spoken highly of Edmonds' work and pointed out the few brave voices in Congress who demanded investigations into the foreign power/globalist subversion.

Unfortunately for us, Turkish politics remains even more opaque than Russian policy making, which thanks to sites like Ft. Russ or Russian deep state-rs like Lt. Gen. Leonid Reshetnikov speaking out is suddenly not so mysterious. One hardly needs to be a 'Kremlinologist' to see the overall direction of Russian policy towards China and the New Silk Road/Eurasian Economic Union, with the EEU/EU merger after the final dollar collapse as a distant but tantalizing goal.

Next week, regardless of WHO actually blew up the anti-Erdoğan government demonstration, is that Russia will declare its condolences for the victims and issue a statement about how the attack shows all nations should join Russia's fight against the Islamic State. Yes, even if the attack actually was not carried out by ISIS -- though we can hardly exclude the possibility. Some Islamic State fighters after all must be feeling slightly betrayed after imagining that the Turkish Air Force and the ludicrous rules of engagement the Obama Administration has saddled the U.S. military with to coddle ISIS would protect their budding Caliphate. The problem with arming and funding proxies, as the Pakistani intelligence service ISI has discovered, is that they don't always STAY bought, and can occasionally turn on their master like a bad dog. See Israel's involvement in the early days of Hamas as an Islamist counterweight to the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) back in the 1980s for another Mideast example. The enemy of your enemy is sometimes...still an enemy, rather than a friend!

Would Turkey destroy all this trade to make Washington happy in a bid to create a second Afghanistan for the Russians in Syria? Not bloody likely.

Would Turkey destroy all this trade to make Washington happy in a bid to create a second Afghanistan for the Russians in Syria? Not bloody likely.

Turkey is Likely to Stay on the Fence in Cold War 2.0 -- and Won't Fall on its Scimitar for Washington's Proxy War with Russia

As we mentioned during the first hour of the Friday night Guerrilla Radio show (available for download here, and soon to be posted by the Guerrilla on the main page), the Russia Analyst is highly skeptical that Turkey will risk a direct military clash with Russia. Yes, even as the Russians bomb the hell out of jihadist groups whether the so-called 'Army of Conquest' Jaesh al-Fatah or ISIS itself that have been armed with either active Turkish intelligence agency support or connivance. And yes, even if the Russians start blowing up the ISIS/Jubhat al-Nusra oil smuggling routes into Turkey.

The Russian violations of Turkish air space acknowledged and apologized for by Moscow only lasted a few seconds -- hardly the stuff of WWIII even with NATO trying to make hay out of this 'aggression'. The painting of Turkish Air Force F-16s by hostile radars appears to be the work of the Syrians (the SAF flies MiGs, Ivan is flying Sukhois), though we cannot exclude the possibility that a Russian trainer was piloting the Syrian Air Force MiG-29 that locked on to the Turkish 'Vipers'. Nor can we discount the possibility that a joint Syrian-Russian S-300 crew gave the Turkish pilots the screeching ECM signal of locked on death -- just as we said they would in early September.

As we told the Guerrilla this weekend, why should the Turks after tolerating four years of Russian arms floating through the Bosporus Strait past Istanbul suddenly risk a trade embargo from Russia's side to do Washington any favors? Especially for the same Obama Administration that just officially announced it's throwing in the towel on the Pentagon's program of training Syrian rebels to fight both Assad and the Islamic State? Why would even a cocky Turkish government...one NOT facing a severe economic slowdown, Deep State discontent and a looming Kurdish insurgency NUKE Ankara's trade ties and Eurasian Silk Road prospects to satisfy the 'let's kill Russians' fantasies of the neocon losers?

[embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=URiSWRpuK3U[/embed]

Retired Army Gen. Jack Keane is furious that Putin's proxies in the Syrian Arab Army, including these unveiled and brave women fighting alongside the SAA, are beating the crap out of America's bearded jihadi proxy 'allies'

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25 billion cubic meters of reasons why Turkey won't violate the Montreux Conventions of 1936 and try to block Russia from sending supplies to Syria via the Bosporus Strait

25 billion cubic meters of reasons why Turkey won't violate the Montreux Conventions of 1936 and try to block Russia from sending supplies to Syria via the Bosporus Strait

During the Friday night program we mentioned that a very large percentage of Turkey's natural gas supplies, probably nearly half, come from Russia. We also talked about the billions of dollars annually in tourism and agri-sales turnover Turkey has with Russia. Just days before the most recent bluster from Ankara about Russia choosing the wrong course in supporting Assad with air strikes, the two governments had boasted that Russo-Turkish annual trade would top $100 billion by 2023. State-funded media RT has downplayed Russian-Turkish tensions, quoting Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu as saying:

“Our position is very clear, we’ll warn any country that violates our borders in a friendly way. Russia is our friend and neighbor. There is no tension between Turkey and Russia in this sense. The issue of Syria is not a Turkish-Russian crisis,”

Once again it appears there is no appetite either in Moscow or Ankara for direct confrontation. This weekend's terrorist bombing of the Ankara demonstration is unlikely to change that, and if it was a 'Deep State' false flag op it very well could have been designed to not only embarrass Erdoğan, but actually BOLSTER Russia's anti-ISIS Narrative with the Turkish public. Why? Because the single greatest point of blackmail leverage the Western globalists have 'on' Erdoğan also happens to be his biggest political liability in Turkey. Even most Turkish Islamists do not like Daesh, per the Guerrilla's report that both Sunni and Shi'a Islamic scholars came together over a year ago in Tunisia (or was it Morocco?) to denounce the organization as un-Islamic.

As we mentioned in our article "Grandmaster Disaster: The Only Way the Turk Wins the Chessmatch is Not to Play the Empire's Strange Game" Erdoğan has gone from presiding over a period of prosperity for Turkey and improving relations with the Kurds to economic contraction, a Turkish lira crisis, and the bursting of an Arab Persian Gulf investor-fueled housing bubble. With the Saudis tightening their belts and settling in for a period of low oil prices thanks to new Iranian crude supply coming on the market, can Riyadh really afford to keep helping Erdoğan out with investment and favorable loans on Islamic banking (meaning officially no interest) terms? We don't think so (ditto for fighting proxywars not only with Iran in Yemen but also going up against Russia semi-directly in Syria -- see below).

China's FD-2000 / HQ-9 SAM system, which Turkey cancelled an order for under heavy pressure from Washington not to buy weapons from outside of NATO (Photo by RT.com)

China's FD-2000 / HQ-9 SAM system, which Turkey cancelled an order for under heavy pressure from Washington not to buy weapons from outside of NATO (Photo by RT.com)

Adding to this Turkish malaise is likely a perception among Turkey's security agencies and top brass that Ankara has been too dependent on the United States and NATO for far too long -- witness the Turkish purchase of a surface to air missile system and other equipment from China, usually a big no-no if you're a Washington vassal (see the Land Destroyer report for stories about Washington's covert and G-NGO campaign against the Thai governments that have drawn closer to Beijing). The Turkish public is also becoming more aware of how much resentment must be building in Europe against the massive influx of Muslim migrants they've set off this summer -- and that Ankara's prospects of European Union membership are now more distant than ever. With more Europeans particularly Eastern Europeans who are supposedly NATO's bulwark against Russia saying, "We don't want any Muslim migrants" the Turkish majority may see Russia with its large Muslim population as comparatively more friendly.

Again while we cannot untangle the intricacies of Turkish politics, we have to guess that at least some military members and several million secular Turks resent Erdoğan's neo-Ottoman brand of Islamism and will soon sense an opportunity to push him out, most likely after a poor showing for his Law and Justice (AKP) party in this November's elections. While our friend Jim Willie the Golden Jackass has declared that the Turks are up to their eyeballs in narco money and Afghan heroin flow into Europe, he's also observed during recent talk show appearances that some Turkish spooks and colonels can take NATO narco-bribes while still doing business with Moscow and Beijing. Being two faced and the middle man between East and West is the Turkish way, after all. Another Anatolian tradition, in case Erdoğan does something very stupid and orders his pilots to shoot at the Russian jets, is the military coup.

If the Neocons Can't Exploit Turkey to Fight Russia in Syria, What about Israel?

Vladimir Putin shaking hands with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu. Despite the vitriol of neocon 'friends of Israel' towards the Russian leader, in Israel itself there is a quiet respect for Vladimir Vladimirovich -- with some Russian-speaking Chabad Jews openly praising Putin.

Vladimir Putin shaking hands with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu. Despite the vitriol of neocon 'friends of Israel' towards the Russian leader, in Israel itself there is a quiet respect for Vladimir Vladimirovich -- with some Russian-speaking Chabad Jews openly praising Putin.

With Turkey unlikely to fight and reluctant to 'up' its arms and jihadi flows into northern Syria, what with the Syrian Arab Army advancing towards the border and Russian air strikes incinerating the deliverables, what's a humiliated neocon Russophobe left to do?

Israel is clearly sitting this one out now that Netanyahu has met with Putin and the two have come to some sort of understanding. Russian arms should stay with the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and will not go to Hezbollah, and in return there will be no more Israeli air strikes on Syrian soil while the Russians are controlling the skies. The Al-Nusra fighters who've pledged allegiance to Al-Qaeda Israel has been supporting along the Golan Heights will be quietly flushed as an embarassment to the Mossad's 'war on terror', but again the IDF probably demanded that the SAA and not Hezbollah take them out otherwise they'll start shooting across the line of demarcation.

Behind this 'truce' between Moscow and Tel Aviv, who were never enemies in the formal sense but rather 'frenemies' like the Russians and Turks, is the question of Mediterranean gas. As we told the Guerrilla Friday night, with no Qatari pipeline to Turkey and Europe via a post-Assad Syria, the Israelis have to make alternative arrangements to get their natural gas north. Liquefying and floating the gas across the Med will cost Israeli and foreign investors billions of dollars, with the eternal headache of security for the floating refrigerated hydrocarbons and LNG terminal. At any rate, Israel does not have a sufficient amount of beach front real estate far enough from the threat of either Hamas rockets launched from Gaza or Hezbollah missiles raining down from Lebanon to justify an LNG terminal's existence.

Enter Russia, which speaks the language of between 1 out of 8 and 1 out of 7 Israelis. Not only can Moscow help the Israelis sort out their competing natural gas claims with the Russians clients in Damascus and the Lebanese, but the Russians together with the Chinese can invest into a connector pipeline running under the Med from the Leviathian gas field to Cyprus, and thence to the Greek mainland to join the Turkstream project. Having Egyptian gas already flowing into Israel also funneled into this joint project can create a strong incentive for future Egyptian governments to stay peaceful towards Israel. Joint gas field development can also cement Greek-Israeli ties even if Golden Dawn gains popularity in the impoverished Hellenic Republic as a force that doesn't like the Jewish State or those who claim to speak for Zionist interests abroad all that much.

In this way, a Russian-Chinese new order in the Mideast can replace the chaos the Empire has sown all around Israel, which the neocons sold under the auspices of the so-called Oded Yinon Plan (also known under its Project for a New American Century pre-9/11 label of 'a clean break').

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Empty threats from 'Free Syrian Army' (FSA) losers who said Assad would be gone two years ago...

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[embed]https://twitter.com/Serene_Meadows/status/652468236211101696[/embed]

Who's Left to Fight Russia to the Last Jihadi Then? Saudi Arabia and Qatar?

With neither Turkey nor Israel willing to risk their own spooks, pilots, or military advisers under Russian bombs alongside the jihadis, who's left to carry out U.S. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter's threat to inflict casualties on the Russians?

During the 1980s the Central Intelligence Agency relied primarily on three Muslim allied states to carry out the bulk of the training and arming of the anti-Soviet mujaheddin in Afghanistan: Pakistan with its ISI under Gen. Hamid Gul (20 November 1936 – 15 August 2015) frontline contacts among the Pashtuns, Egypt with its large arsenal of Soviet and Chinese delivered weapons for 'plausible deniability', and of course Saudi Arabia to provide the religious and financial backing for the global Sunni jihad against the Soviets. The basic problem with repeating this formula -- besides the fact that Syria is not Afghanistan especially in terms of terrain and the Syrian Arab Army is not the weak Soviet-backed Afghan National Army? Or that the jihadists the West would be backing this time have either surrendered weapons to ISIS, cooperated with them, or actually are part of the Islamic State, presenting Washington with a PR nightmare should ISIS shoot down an airliner using an American Stinger missile?

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So much for the State Dept. and neocon lies spread by the MSM 'Russia isn't bombing ISIS' or only hitting 'moderates'

For starters, Egypt is firmly on Moscow's side this time. General turned President Sisi knows all too well about the Obama Administration's not so covert support of the Muslim Brotherhood and that the Salafists trying to topple Assad would wage jihad against his secular, Copts-protecting junta in a heartbeat. The stupidity of the Obama Administration in backing the Muslim Brotherhood, the decades-old enemy of the Egyptian military, and of the Saudi Royal family has made any mustering of the same forces in a wholehearted campaign against the Russians a non-starter. In fact, we could very well see some Egyptian soldiers or at least 'vacationers' and mercenaries fighting for Assad once it's clear the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) has the foreign backed jihadists on the run. But first Egypt will likely need to find some way to make peace with the Houthis and Yemeni tribesmen fighting against the ill-conceived, bogged down Saudi invasion of Yemen. Moscow is of course, willing to help Cairo and Tehran mend fences.

How about the Saudis? We mentioned in the Friday night Guerrilla Radio broadcast that there are rumors of a palace coup in Riyadh. The old king Salman bin AbdulAziz is basically a monarch in name only, supposedly propped up by doctors and barely able to function after the death of his predecessor King Abdullah bin AbdulAziz.  The Economist, UK Guardian and other mainstream media are suddenly reporting that the war in Yemen is dragging on and the Kingdom is being forced to make budget cuts, acknowledging that its petrodollar reserves are huge but not limitless. The true extent of the combat losses for the Saudis and their Persian Gulf allies who went in to restore a Saudi puppet government are probably being concealed, though perhaps not on the scale of the Ukrainians hiding thousands of their KIA. So neither Saudi financial nor cannon fodder resources are unlimited.

[embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CcebtW2BdJc[/embed]

Iranian government channel Press TV reports on the successful Syrian Arab Army/National Defense Forces offensive

Pro-Syrian rebel social media brag about how the Saudis are sending more TOW missiles to their proxies to use against Assad's army, while acting as if the TOWs are wunderwaffen that can stop massed Russian-provided firepower and air strikes. They're wrong.

[embed]https://twitter.com/XiuXes/status/652753878119788544[/embed]

[embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=35&v=XOhRRhjET0w[/embed]

This is apparently what a TOS-1A in action, the type of 'area weapon' thermobaric rocket launcher we mentioned on the Friday night Guerrilla Radio program, looks like when it's setting an area of several football fields in size on fire -- leaving behind charred fragments on the enemy

Much like Hitler's panzerfausts and panzerschrecks in the hands of old men and Hitler Youth could slow, but not stop cold the advances of the Soviet Red Army from 1943-45, the jihadis are likely to find their best TOW gunners buried under Russian artillery, rocket and air strikes. Or overrun by rapid Syrian armored advances once the jihadis start running low on ammunition with so many ammo dumps blown up by Russian and Syrian strikes. The Achilles heel of the jihadists, their lack of a unitary command, their compromised battlefield comms, and the likelihood Russia can keep bombing their supply lines coming in from Turkey, Jordan or Iraq means the Syrian Arab Army has the initiative on the battlefield.

[embed]https://twitter.com/RT_com/status/653013948082601984[/embed]

The jihadis are on the defensive, and their ability to mass any sort of firepower beyond small squads carrying TOWs, mortars or RPGs on the ubiquitous Toyota Hillux pickups is extremely limited. TOW gunners, many of them unaccustomed to being under continuous drone surveillance or facing Russian advisers on the front lines, can be quickly spotted or give away their positions for arty or Hind strikes due to careless use of unencrypted radios. Given these facts, it's no wonder some former 'FSA' fighters have announced they're ready to enter into ceasefire negotiations with Assad:

[embed]https://twitter.com/yurybarmin/status/652446362806657025[/embed]

[embed]https://twitter.com/TheArabSource/status/652987910094893056[/embed]

Note the Russian Army style green kevlar helmets and flak jackets newly issued to Syrian Arab Army soldiers

FSA tanks and artillery quickly find themselves being destroyed by Syrian/Russian Hind gunships, while every attempt to mass any sort of counterattack must occur under the lidless, 24/7 eyes of Russian drones flying far above altitudes where the FSA can shoot them down. Ditto for the notion that Stinger missiles or other MANPADs will help the Syrian jihadists shoot down more than a few Hinds, the helicopters are on the deck issuing flares almost as fast as the jihadis spot them, while the Russian jets are bombing from higher altitudes with Glonass (GPS) or laser guided precision. While the Mi-24P Hinds are vulnerable machines if conducting operations without friendly troops nearby, they remain devastating as part of a combined arms offensive. This is the difference between the FSA and jihadists fighting against an SAA worn out by years of fighting with only Hezbollah and a few Iranian advisers' help versus a joint Russian-Syrian-Iranian command and control system that dominates Syria's air space.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i8RoJblit68

More of CIA's investment in toppling Assad going up in smoke: 'moderate' jihadists chant Allahu Akbar as Russian/Syrian Arab Army GRAD or possibly SMERCH MLRS annihilate some of their 'brothers' outside the city of Hama, as the SAA advances Soviets in WWII style with heavy firepower

While the pro-'FSA' and Kiev trolls suddenly cheering for Al-Qaeda in Syria who think the Saudis and Qataris, who are too cowardly to fight themselves, will ride to the rescue of Washington's defeat in Syria, the younger Saudi princes know better. The Qataris seem to be a whole lot better at setting up 'think tanks' that are really covers for Foreign Alien Registration Act (FARA) violating unregistered lobbying by @Charles_Lister and other Brooking Doha shills, than they are at actual fighting. Qatar's main contribution to the Syrian rebel cause appears to be PR, not weapons or advisers. But apparently there are some in the U.S. Deep State or a few patriots left in the U.S government not comfortable with Doha buying United States policy in Syria wholesale:

[embed]https://twitter.com/GarethPorter/status/653013211218878464[/embed]

[embed]https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/652854602866540546[/embed]

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America arming Syria's Al-Qaeda affiliate Al-Nusra and Qatari shill Charles Lister attempting to deny it to an RT embedded at Latakia

This is why we saw the meetings between Putin and the younger Mohammed bin Salman al Saud on the sidelines of the MAKS air show in late August, as the first rumors of a Russian military buildup at Latakia reached the Kingdom. It's why we're seeing negotiations Sunday, again between bin Salman al Saud and Putin. The NSA will most certainly want to be a fly a on the wall for that meeting but will have to tap the Prince's communications afterwards to find out what was said from the Saudi perspective.

[embed]https://twitter.com/yurybarmin/status/652927355468578816[/embed]

Representatives of the Russian Defense Ministry, in their evaluation of the actions of the US military and the various operations they are engaged worldwide, have never sunk down to the level to publicly express the hope for the death of US servicemen or, even less so, of ordinary Americans.

Today’s announcement Pentagon chief Ashton Carter, unfortunately clearly illustrates the current level of political culture of some representatives of the US government or, should I say, their level of cynicism towards the rest of the world. I am sure that no US general would ever have allowed himself to express such feelings. - Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov , spokesman for the Russian Defense Ministry, October 8, 2015  (Source:http://tass.ru/politika/2331242 )

From "Week One of the Russian Military Intervention in Syria" by The Saker, Unz Review, October 10, 2015

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