— maytham (@maytham956) December 19, 2016
— Al-Masdar News (@TheArabSource) December 19, 2016
Those expecting this assassination to be another Gavrilo Princip spark of the type that ignited the European powder keg and World War One 103 years ago are going to be disappointed -- Putin and Erdogan have both affirmed the killer's goal was to destroy Turkish-Russian detente. Since last November if not earlier, Putin has thus far deftly evaded 'let's you and him fight' schemes to embroil Russia in direct combat with the Turks, despite the Turkish offensive toward Al-Bab and Ankara's illegal under international law seizure of a 'buffer zone' to block a Kurdish state in northern Syria (which also secures supply lines for the so-called 'moderate' rebels opposed to Assad if not ISIS from getting cut off by the Kurds).
— Feisty☀️Floridian (@peddoc63) December 20, 2016
The real blowback from this killing, we suspect will come next year, when President-elect Donald J. Trump takes office. In a tweeted response to the slaying, Trump hinted at the need for 'new thinking' -- which we interpret to mean reevaluating whether an increasingly unstable, Islamized and ISIS/PKK-violence plagued Turkey ought to remain in NATO. Despite the barely concealed sick neocon glee and endorsement of takfirists' celebrations of Ambassador Karlov's death, if a rogue Turkish cop can shoot a Russian ambassador in the back next time it may be the turn of an American or German diplomat. The hubris of Atlanticists who will be increasingly unmasked as globalists that they'll never pay a political price for their support of keeping an increasingly neo-Ottoman Turkey in NATO and backing a pathetic, spineless Merkel/EU(SSR) policy of allowing the Sultan to blackmail Europe with mass migration is badly mistaken.
Today there were terror attacks in Turkey, Switzerland and Germany - and it is only getting worse. The civilized world must change thinking!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 19, 2016
At the same time, the efforts of Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn to open back channel diplomacy with the Turks prior to joining the Administration as White House National Security Adviser have resulted in Flynn advocating the extradition of CIA asset Muslim cleric Fetullah Gulen to Turkey for his alleged role in the mid-July putsch and other crimes. It remains likely that Erdogan, true to character, will exploit Amb. Karlov's murder to continue purging the Turkish police and security services, while maximizing Ankara's bargaining position between Washington and Moscow.
— Jeremy Nolt (@RealJeremyNolt) December 20, 2016
— Sergey Bobkov (@sbobkov) December 20, 2016
Nonetheless, if an ex-cop with an axe to grind for being purged and an outdated police ID can slip past either incompetent or complicit security at an Ankara gallery to murder a Russian Ambassador, the Sultan and his own children cannot consider themselves safe. Especially if the reports are true that this policeman worked with Erdoğan's personal security detail in the past. The examples of the late Benazhir Bhutto of Pakistan and Rajiv Ghandi of India spring to mind, and surely have occurred to 'the turd in the hummus bowl' since July -- that next time there's a coup, the plotters will start by having a security detail member take him out.
On a related note, if the Sultan wishes to atone for his previous sponsorship of ISIS before the terrorists his family and supporters nurtured ruin Turkey's struggling economy and diplomatic reputation, Erdogan had better demonstrate to the Americans and Russians alike a willingness to shed Turkish blood to defeat ISIS. Otherwise the 'go slow' and half-assed neo-Ottoman approach of trying wherever possible to persuade Daeshbags to stand down and melt away back to the Turkish border, (rather than killing them) will be supplanted by harsher measures. And those will involve the gloves coming off and massed U.S. and Russian firepower to slaughter IS all the way to Raqqa and Deir Ez Zor, respectively, with Egyptian Army troops perhaps coming in a UNSC-approved Syria peacekeeping role.
Trump statement on the assassination of Russia's ambassador to Turkey pic.twitter.com/nvhNS1wcod
— Bradd Jaffy (@BraddJaffy) December 19, 2016
As Vineyard of the Saker blog contributor Larchmonter445 wrote back in mid-November, Gen. Flynn's contacts with the Turks were about establishing whom to trust in Ankara and the basis for negotiations when Trump assumes office on January 20:
— Mark Lowen (@marklowen) December 20, 2016
Speaking of my Swiss White Russian Floridian friend The Saker, he had this to say in reaction to the horrible shooting death of Amb. Karlov:
Idiot proxies have solidified Russo-Turk ties. The entire mideast is being rebalanced.
— Rogue Money (@theroguemoney) December 19, 2016
This post is also an open thread to discuss the jihadist murder of a Polish truck driver and attack on a Christmas market in Berlin, Germany, as well as the wounding of three Muslims by gunfire at a mosque in Zurich, Switzerland, which also happened on Monday December 19, 2016 (Team Rogue Money's resident numerologists take note). As some of the more astute and Twitter saavy RogueMoney readers may have noticed, certain (ahem) troll accounts tried to spread disinfo blaming the Berlin attack on a Chechen citizen of the Russian Federation, instead of the Pakistani man who was later identified as the perp. The Russia Analyst will have more to say about these networked Cold War 2.0 disinfo waging trolls for the dirty deep state soon, after the holidays.
— Russia in RSA 🇷🇺 (@EmbassyofRussia) December 20, 2016