The Wolf’s sense of smell has been in confusion of late trying to figure out which way the winds blow. Are free markets about to make a come back, or have they been with us all along, once you fully factor in the effects of “cognitive dissonance” over the past couple decades? Meaning “cognitive dissonance” is also a part of the free market equation, and the markets have just been factoring them in appropriately.
One thing is for sure, the biggest bubble in world history is starting to get “thin in the skin,” as in ready to pop. Which bubble, you ask? The western debt markets. Putting that aside for the moment, the good news of late is that nationalism is on the rise in the USA with a Trump victory, but it ain’t the only thing on the rise. “Yields” are as well folks. It would appear a debt funeral is “dead” ahead, along with an associated paper wake. In a rather timely fashion the professor Ken Schortgen Jr., just provided a top down analysis to a western paper funeral, with historical theories that are now becoming reality.
Before getting into the meat and potatoes of this installment, I have to throw out a theory from an installment written over two years ago. A theory that will fit nicely, and one that states that the markets are actually free. “Free,” just like the international man Doug Casey has said. I know what you may be thinking, that with a supposed honest market filled with “informed” investors that the prior couple of sentences are totally incorrect, especially with respect to the hard asset markets. Incorrect except for one major thing. If free markets are truly free, and additionally allow for the “stupid/cognitive-dissonant” people to freely participate, then I suppose you have to factor in the unpredictability of “stupidity/cognitive-dissonance.”
At least for a while, as it appears responsibility and intelligence may be taking hold in some corners. Witness the public’s uprising in the recent US election, but that same election has released a dose of “election victory cognitive dissonance.” The more things change, the more things stay the same!
The time frames for “stupidity/cognitive-dissonance” (SCD) being an overdeveloped defining factor in free markets are typically limited. Decades apparently mark the political free market’s limits regarding the afore mentioned ‘SCD’. Again, witness the recent election. And the winds seem to be telling one Wolf Gray that we are about to see how Economic Mother Nature presides over the current limits to the time frame that will define the “Fiat King Dollar’s” life span. A life span fueled of late by the last fumes in the gas tank, the typical fumes of cognitive dissonance, plus a dose of stupidity. An ‘SCD’ that I am afraid to say may have just got a boost by the recent election.
The Wolf’s and the Wolfpack’s sense of smell is somewhat confused and would seem to be alone on this bottom up view, so 'I/we' could use your guidance. To wit, those happy Trump voters that seem to think the US economic life boats are coming to their immediate aid are about to see a delay to their ‘pocket-book’ rescue, thanks to the ravages that will come with rising debt “Yields.” These rising “Yield” signs say the market is about to let each of us know, “it doesn’t suffer fools gladly.” WG
Yield! The funeral cometh! And, sorry folks it can’t be Trumped. There are limits to man’s abilities to forestall “nature” economic and or otherwise.
First please note the recent top down analysis of the overall business economic landscape by the professor, with reference to Dr. Jim Willie’s theories and analysis.
The above link leads us nicely to some of the “ground up” business/economic evidence to be witnessed in real time. That being said, no news beat would be complete without a rehash of the undeniable trends that continue asserting themselves….
In the laughable category, check this total ‘bs’ out……
Is there something missing in the fantasy ratings in the above link? Upon further examination I detect a total absence of any eastern nations. Not exactly a complete ranking, would you say?
If you really think things are on the uptrend and all’s well, then check out this headline from the NFL….
Now let’s get serious and get to yields, US treasury yields that is……..
Why are we seeing this headline without the accompanying false positive of yields remaining steady? ZeroHedge is right, “suddenly”….???? For once they are rising at the required, or proper “alarming” rate. Is it an honest issue of sell volume over power buying volume, or is it a let’s go ahead and let er’ blow attitude by the ESF boys? Hold that thought for a second, and check out this market indicator.
“Liquidity collapses,” is this headline wrong? Is the cognitive-dissonance belief in debt markets coming to an end, with the assertion of making room for honest intelligent free markets? Or is it just a case of too much volume on the sell side for the ESF to cover up? And just what might the sellers be doing with the proceeds? Check this out…….
Pulled from the above ZeroHedge link:
So who are they selling to? The answer, at least until last month, was private demand, in other words just like in the stock market the retail investor is the final bag-holder, so when it comes to US Treasuries, "private investors" both foreign and domestic are soaking up hundreds of billions in central bank holdings. As we said last month when we observed this great rotation in Treasuries out of official holders into private hands, "we wonder if they would [keep buying] knowing who is selling to them." Z.H
I got it. Maybe US fund managers really are soaking up the Treasury sales which were forced by their own prospectus restrictions. Ironic isn’t it, that they are trapped in their own western paper restrictions? Check out the next two links highlighting total western buffoonery…..
Based on the second link above, it appears Dave Kranlzer feels like the Wolf Gray does about Mr. Stanley Druckenmiller’s statements on what sorts of investments should be pursued at the moment. Note this excerpt from Mr. Kranzler……
Stanley Druckenmiller said: “I sold all my gold (sic) on the night of the election” because he sees inflation spiking and that will force money(sic) out of gold…hmmm….sell gold because you see inflation coming? That has to be the most idiotic investment rationale I’ve ever come across. Even “buy stocks because they keep going higher” is less dumb than that. D.K.
Again, maybe the pool of bad debt purchasing fools has reached the retail fund world. Did Economic Mother Nature enter the room for those guys? Or is it just the last vestiges of the “free market of fools” making a last ditch purchase for a short term run, to short term profits? Just in time, before the tangible markets head ever upward. Who cares? The wise man or woman avoids the “yield” problems and reaches for time tested solutions. As they, “WE” have better things to do than attend funerals where the deceased has been terminally late. Maybe late no more, the “Yield” signs are on the rise!
For the short term, Mr. Druckenmiller, who has supposedly moved into the King Dollar, looks pretty smart as the dollar races upward. Racing up with no true strength in sight, only the strong tail winds of other very very large “fund managers.” What fund managers you ask, the “sovereigns!” Sovereigns, who are also holders of the world’s reserve currency, now hastily exiting stage left yielding a feigned strength via transaction conversions to an outgoing fiat piece of crap. This will eventually bode poorly for the King, with it’s bigger cousin the “treasury complex” going in the opposite direction. Meanwhile please excuse the King if he is a bit detached from reality, after all he is in the embalming room being laid to rest.
Now it is time to dip into the hopium crowd, those who can’t find anything better to do than to simply do what they have always done……Chase “wants debt based” business models…..
The above link covers what could be a very dangerous trend. Folks, these kind of moves in that past are almost 100% accurate in their predictions of the trend in the economy. In reverse that is! When this sort of big emotional jump takes place in the home building business, it foretells the ultimate in the “wrong way corrigan” skill sets. Home building is not an industry, and home ownership is not a “need” it is a “want!”
Both are off shoots of real honest “needs” based industries. Unlike Druckenmiller, or any of the other members of the prospectus limited crowd, stay light on your feet for the moment, keep some of your powder dry, and start looking for the starting blocks necessary to position yourself in an “eventual needs” based economic comeback. Further rises in debt “Yields” say you and I will be correct. WG
This next article from Hugo Salinas Price is a superb description of a debt based economy, and the trends that happen to the “reserve based currency” when it is based on an over reliance of debt for continued expansion.
Note this final summary excerpt from Mr. Price….
Thus, we are likely to see a desperate attempt at world inflation of money through further expansion of credit in the RC, to finance government spending in order to "get the world economy on its feet again" and crush any possibility of world deflation, for the time being. Which would, of course, only postpone the final collapse of the world's economy to some point in the future. H.S.P.
If that last excerpt is correct, we will probably witness the shortest quick fix time frame in western world history. My guess is that it will not work at all this time around. The rebuild approaches shortly after the King Dollar demise.
In this next interview with King World News Mr. Hugo Salinas Price is highlighted once again, and makes a great philosophical statement.
“I Have Serious Doubts About The Survival Of Our Civilization”
They are all working on the spur of the moment. They are experimenting to see if this works and that works. And I have very serious doubts about the survival of our civilization under such people. I expect that a great crisis is coming. We are going to see a great separation and some people are just not going to make it, and the old truths are going to come back into fashion because of the need for survival.” H.S.P.
And that segues nicely into this subtitle……
A Western Paper Funeral
The Wolf has been very depressed post election due to the lack of opinions in the realm of reality. Everything in the economy will be fixed in due course per the alternative media, as Trump is in like Flynn. The very folks who might get it from an economic or business perspective, like the Trump voters, appear to have gotten dumber! That’s right dumber, at least when solutions are discussed. What am I hearing? Wolf get over this gold and silver stuff and give Trump a chance, that’s the new theme from the supposed informed crowd.
As we all know this sort of rhetoric has nothing to do with the economy. You can’t wipe out decades of mismanaged debt which was backed by nothing, nothing as in zero collateral, and then magically expect things to change for the positive from this point forward. Well excuse me, the economically clueless seem to expect things to get positive, just by voting! Beware folks, the numbers of the economically clueless are growing, and they will view you with anti-patriotic sentiment if you question their judgement.
The numbers that know something WAS (pre-election) GENERALLY wrong, from an economic perspective, was clearly on the rise (the election proves that). But the numbers that have a clue as to it’s origins and recognize the basic means to correct it, have stopped in it’s tracks. That said, the solutions are still the same. Continue with your DHAP preparations (diversified hard asset portfolio) and influence those that you can without “getting into their face with your message.”
I still maintain we will go backward in order to go forward. Deal with it, anti-patriotic sentiment or not.
Alternatively, Trump seems to be on the move with some good ideas that will eventually assist in the rebuild once the beat down is over ……Like dismantling all or portions of the 2010 “Dodd Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act,” the UCA (unaffordable care act), and opening the doors to domestic energy solutions…….
This reminds me of the NFL and the New England Patriots. I don’t like those guys, never have, and I haven’t any really good reasons, but must give credit where credit is due. They are just flat good. Why? Fundamentals. Fundamentals that are instilled by the team’s leader Bill Belichick. No Tom Brady or ‘Gronk’ at the beginning of the season, no problem. Just adhere to your football fundamentals, block and tackle, and we still win. Trump just needs to do his job like Belichick. Enforce the rule of law and ease business choking regulations and eventually we will get back to winning. At least winning when it is warranted, via the time tested logic of sticking to performing your fundamentals.
Fundamentals! It is just that simple. And the above link, for now, seems to be describing a guy addressing those very issues. So far so good. Time will tell, but the “beat down” will need to happen first, before the rebuild will be effective. Until that victorious point, everyone who thinks Trump has an economic magic wand needs to rethink things NOW, or you will be crying like the idiot Hillary voters. Crying real soon as well. Stick to “needs” based solutions, and repel “wants” based garbage. We have become far too addicted to “wants” and the attached desires that are based on the ownership notion of owning items that are based on “keeping up with the Jone’s.” This trend has been especially prevalent over the past couple decades.
I have a Wolfpack tip for president elect Trump. An easy way to overcome the infrastructure rebuild and the attached financing conundrum. But first, check out the link below which details the problems of obtaining the funds for an infrastructure rebuild…..
The above link is a reality check to prove that there is no magic wand in sight, but……..as always the Wolfpack has a possible answer to finding the necessary funds for the infrastructure rebuild. TIP: Why not cut off the welfare funds to the sanctuary cities, those same cities which would appear to be in violation of federal law. If President Trump needs more details he can contact us at the "Wolf's Pub”………..
For another take on the “paper funeral,” let’s tune into Clif High and Greg Hunter (credits to KW88 for alerting me to this video)…….
@ 1:45...Note the odds on favorite bet that if several of Clif's predictive linguistics fall in line, then it is very likely some of the other predictions will follow suit. WG personal note, Hillary didn't go missing long enough to suit me.
@ 4:06...Greg leads into this segment with “Hillary is worthless and she could be in great jeopardy.” Clif confirms this "thieves theory," that as long as the criminals are having things go their way, then all is well, but when things fall apart they typically start "ratting on each other," or worse. Note that about 3 minutes into this segment, Clif brings up an RM theory, one that WG has harped on ad-nauseam, one that is starting to take shape even before services are cut off, "Chaos in the cities, happening right now and likely to intensify!" For my money it is a true prelude to the coming realities. A DHAP (diversified hard asset portfolio) reality, location-location-location.
@ 8:00...The Trump supporters aren't stuck in “save me,” they are more worried about “will Trump's presidency be hi-jacked.” No real predictions here as it is just a reality in the msm, and the alternative media. Also, pay attention to Clif's recent history lesson on how the left is the primary breeding ground of "dictators."
@ 10:28...Clif reiterates what we have seen in the news, and was reported by WG via hints from his friend "London Paul,” that these folks are scared of being hunted down for their crimes. Note how Clif gives a description from a psychopaths view as to how the Clinton types will handle this fear. Clif feels the fear motives have yet to be defined. Allow me, "THEY ARE EXPERIENCING FEAR DUE TO A PERCEIVED LOSS OF CONTROL OF THEIR POWER STRUCTURES! All I can add to that WG description is, "GOOD!"
@ 15:55…Here, what happened in the equity markets right after the election is highlighted. Clif feels that massive swings are to continue until the clarity of the deflationary event that will likely emerge in early 2017. Of note, debt rates appear to be heading upward, the “YIELD” of this installment ‘btw’. Ironically, a very important "unreported trend" noticed over the last few weeks that has not been harped on accordingly (Alt media has hit on it somewhat). Avoided, I would suspect due to the uptrend in equities.
@ 19:30…Here they agree on the coming economic rarity of deflation and inflation running side by side. Clearly being visible in early 2017. Debt will be pushed to the masses, but at the same time the Fed will not be able to absorb the incoming offshore dollars fast enough to quell the inflation on imported products. Primarily "needs" based products. House prices will fall, and needs rise dramatically. A characteristic harped on by Team RM over & over. And by WG to the point of irritating the readers. Why? Because it is the clarion call to prepare in advance. Get with it folks, you have been warned!
@ 23:34...At this point they embark on a description of the banks running scared in an effort to take back anything with substance, or tangible. Like homes.
@ 24:33...Here Clif discusses how Trump and his team will deal with this sort of chaos, the chaos mentioned above. Will Trump dump the "deep state/government system" entirely, as this will be critical in this scenario? Though that is hard to predict there is one simple solution, get into hard assets with no debt tied to them, and an intrinsic value that can be bartered. GSBC's (gold & silver bars & coins) or farm land, anyone?
@ 25:22...Next the question of what will happen to GSBC's in the near future. Will they go down the way Harry "Dafffy Deflation" Dent says or? Clif says what we at RM have said over & over and for years. US pieces of paper will go out of favor and real money will be desirable. Very, very soon. Tangible-tangible-tangible with a healthy dose of productive needs based products. Solutions folks, that is all that matters at this point, solutions that are obvious, ones that are inspired by NEEDS! Clif feels GSBC's will be much much higher, around the 29 minute mark of this segment, nothing new here.
@ 29:23...Clif states that he gets no real numbers regarding the economy, but he does have data sets that show the price of gold approaches the price of the DOW Jones averages, which he says indicate a price of 125,000. Wow, time will tell. In the meantime, just add it to your solutions based preparations if you have the funds to do so.
@ 33:00...The msm is given some color in this segment. Bottom line, the msm (mainstream media) will become weaker in the future. Clif feels they are mouthpieces to criminal organizations. He says the command group that is going out of power in the US is very reminiscent of Hitler's outgoing regime. He feels that the current msm, and the people attached to the outgoing power structures, will see something similar to the recent banker suicides. Meaning, since they were willing to tell lies to further the elite agenda and save their own skins, then they will probably be liars again and thus will need to be terminated or disparaged to due to their inherent character weaknesses. Ironic, wouldn’t you say?
@ 41:45...Greg asks Clif if he is seeing language in his data sets that says Hillary will be charged with high crimes? In short, Clif says, yes he does see that in his data sets.
@ 43:55...The big quote for this interview is, “We can't afford the illusion anymore, because the dollar is going away." BINGO! Yield! Funeral Ahead!!! WG agrees the dollar is a paper illusion folks, and nothing more. An illusion that will very soon to be viewed as a pariah. Not just a pariah we think is resident only to those outside our borders anymore. Coming home, funeral party awaits.
My friend “The Russian Analyst” sent an excellent link via email that detailed a little history and the influences of the election, Donald Trump and money, and then money, and then money, once again. All supplemented with a big dose of mismanagement. I wrote back a rant that is shortened and edited for clarity below, after the excellent link James provided….
The author is ignoring or avoiding one major point. It is we the people. Until we get that right, nothing else matters. For as long as I have been alive (almost 62 years) all concepts revolve around some evil major outside entity that controls our lazy asses. Bullshit. 'Govnmt', elite, China, you name it. Somewhere down the line we have to take responsibility for putting things like "Dumbo Ears" into office. For putting pieces of shit like Billy-Bob in office, for getting sucked in to satisfying our own egos, and farming out all jobs for short term "world's slave owner" ego satisfaction.
I will stand by this example premise, one I write about and redo all the time on the pages of RM; who is more important, the owners, the managers, the players, or the the fans in major sporting events like the NFL? If there is no “we the people” in the stands (the fans), then the other over paid sacks of crap we idolize have to go home. And I get, what most in the US think. Well you can't get "all the fans" to agree in the stands and do the right fundamental things at one time, uh uh uh uh unless you have a coordinating document that helps prescribe the importance of doing that very thing. Hello, Bill of Rights and Constitution.
“We the people” got too filled up with ourselves and now we will clearly be put in time out, or worse in order to set things right. This will be an epic event, and for those that "get it" at some level it will make for a very interesting time to be alive. What really worries me, is that I think I get it, and get lazy and then realize once again that I really don't get it. It's a work in progress for all, with a manuscript that should be followed as best possible.... I may have to write about this one, and use this excellent article you sent for reference. The problem is the subject matter insults everyone's perceived control fetishes.
Sorry for the rant, I am getting weary of all this crap, it has been a long year, but you woke me up a bit my friend with that well thought out article. An article that leaves out one ugly truth, “WE THE PEOPLE HAVE BEEN ASLEEP,” AND ARE AFRAID TO ADDRESS THE MAN IN THE MIRROR." WG
This leads to an interview I saw with a current MMA star and former special forces defender of our freedoms. V interviewed this guy a few weeks ago, and for some reason I watched another interview he completed. For my money, he said a mouthful in it, and I am really glad I watched it. Note from "0:00 - 2:40"
In the above interview I think Mr. Kennedy is talking about honoring your obligations, respecting your honest duties, showing humility to the opportunities you have been given, and then show pride by doing your damned best to execute those tasks….To put it simply, I think he is describing……“The Fundamentals!” WG
All negatives aside, positive signs are still showing up. The election was a clear indicator of that. One of the biggest positive signs isn’t mentioned in the alternative media, but it sure needs to be. The huge fact that Mr. Trump could (at this point appears to be trying to) stem the blood letting trend towards further US business isolation. Alternatively, the King Dollar isolation is still very much on the agenda. Trump will have little or no control over it’s coming demise.
This isn’t complicated. The recent passage of an election event doesn’t instantaneously wipe out decades of ego driven satisfaction, that was supplemented by a dose of cognitive dissonant dereliction of duty. A beat down is necessary, it is still coming and a magic wand isn’t anywhere in sight. Trump’s powers are limited, and I think he “needs” to stick to the fundamentals to be effective, the fundamentals embraced by “The Bill of Rights and The US Constitution.” We all need to put our egos back on the shelf for a while. The election’s outcome didn’t say you could put it on your shoulders again. Put simply, and repeated many times, prepare yourselves. You have been warned. WG
Got brass in pocket
Got bottle I'm gonna use it
Intention I feel inventive
Gonna make you, make you, make you notice
Got motion restrained emotion
Been driving Detroit leaning
No reason just seems so pleasing
Gonna make you, make you, make you notice
'Cause I gonna make you see
There's nobody else here
No one like me
I'm special, so special….The Pretenders
Yes you are, provided your ego isn’t still sitting on your shoulder. WG
The Wolfpack and I feel the new paradigm we will enter has some simple concepts. One that needs to endure, “needs,” and one that needs to die, “wants”…….
Needs which Yield: An incoming unstoppable new paradigm, a US western rebuild with constitutional principles is required, an honest recognition of “we ain’t all that and a bag of chips,” and humility followed with a natural desire for honest work that “Yields” some measure of victory. You can get on board or get the hell out of the way. That includes Mr. Trump.
Wants which Yields: Running with the Jones’s, wasted energy, items that eventually seem to end abruptly every time. Rome anybody?
Hard Asset Tip
Do not abandon your DHAP final preps just because the election went your way (my way too btw). For first timers, try doing your DHAP in stages, with the highest rated items first on the list (note a rating system is in the Rogue Report). Plan with the initial goal of an inventory that yields a 3 month longevity with a goal of combating potential near term retail chaos. After which point, if you have left over funds, give consideration to going to the next step, an increase to a 6 month supply. Unlike some of my RM compatriots I feel 6 months is a minimum goal, not 3. My theory is, it can’t hurt to have an abundance of the fundamentals to our daily lives, as this DHAP stuff can be consumed, meaning any “left-overs” do not constitute or translate into money wasted.
Where’s the proof of your, “we are addicted to wants” based diatribes Wolf Gray? Diatribes that indicate a dereliction of duty, with a decades old ego build-up? A build up that indicates we now falsely think “we are all that and a bag of chips?” Where’s your proof sir? The following link is a true example of the realities that follow a dereliction of “needs” based duties. An indicator of laziness, a laziness that will lead to the crushing of over inflated paper egos. A crushing that is probably necessary before the rebuild can proceed efficiently……
If we hadn’t farmed out our “needs” based industries to become an import addicted nation, we could rebuild from the sad statistics in the above link. As in rebuilding even with today’s statistics being labeled as ground zero. Unfortunately, ground zero for the rebuild still lies well below, and an inevitable self inflicted beat down to get there is necessary. Our “needs” based leadership was given away by laziness, a laziness to practice the fundamentals. Given away to the new “needs” producing world leaders, which dictates a fall on our end is still required. The Wolf loves a rebuild folks, lets get on with it already.
Speaking of farmed out, a phrase used in the first line of the prior paragraph. Don’t farm out or give up on ideas you may have about starting a natural farming endeavor. I still believe farming will be a worthwhile business venture especially if you are in an area that has legal access for the growth of cannabis. Farmers markets are packed here in the US, it would appear that people don't want their families eating unnatural crap.
Hard Asset Speculation: I am getting a strong whiff of some technology that may have a voracious appetite for one of our favorite precious metals. An appetite that is even greater than the need to have it on hand for salvaging the disasters left behind by unrestrained fiat paper printing. Again, at this juncture it is still speculation, supplemented by some actual start-ups. That being said, I can tell you one thing, I sure as hell ain’t going to ditch my silver yet...hint-hint! WG
I am reminded of past wisdom from “The Who.”
I'd pay any price just to get you
I'd work all my life and I will
To win you I'd stand naked, stoned and stabbed
I'd call that a bargain
The best I ever had
The best I ever had … The Who
"Silver," a bargain...the best you’ll ever have? WG
DHAP Accumulation Tip: Stay within your core fundamental beliefs as you accumulate your DHAP “needs.” Kind of like a fighter not throwing punches outside their core. Which, when not adhered to, will vastly eliminate power and probably lead to injury. Likewise, if you don’t stay within your core fundamental beliefs as you prepare (not everybody is the same), you will not be steadfast in your DHAP preparations.
God, then Your Family, then the Land of the Free and the Home of the Brave!
Survive then Thrive and We’ll Howl on the Other Side!
Credits to the thoughts of: Opie, Dixie, Team Rm & the RM Readership, The Pack, Dave Kranzler, Clif High & Greg Hunter, ZeroHedge, Doug Casey, King World News. Hugo Salinas Price, Tim Kennedy, ‘theconservativetreehouse.com’, NY Times, The Pretenders & The Who