Risk…?

In case you haven’t heard, with respect to the question in the title, there is none.  As the Wolf spent inauguration day getting sick, and the following week spitting up unhealthy looking gold colored health relics, I went back to the summer of 2015.  The summer of an initial installment on the ESF, “Exchange Stabilization Fund.”   Yep, the ESF. The bankster’s invention to eliminate or transfer all “risk” to someone else.  As stated in other installments, without risk there is no free market.  Without an honest form of risk for all market participants there can be no prolonged free markets.

Can there be true price discovery without some form of risk, to either party, before coming to the bargaining table?  Not really.  I hear a Mayer Rosthchild quote in the background, to be tied to the establishment of the ESF later in the installment.  

The only period of time that I can recall from my history studies that resemble the current riskless backdrop is the “Roaring 20’s.”  Which were followed by what?  A perfect form of risk rebalancing, the “Great Depression.”  An ultimate form of risk rebalancing that affected the rich, the poor, and even the banksters.  One of these groups felt that these sorts of events could not be tolerated any further.  After all, they had a major meeting in 1910 for the specific purpose of creating an environment of a “risk free world” for those who deserved it, at least for them anyway.  Banksters, anyone?
   
The current version of the “Roaring 20’s” has created a western society that is not so strong, nor sometimes very bright, but instead, entitled. Their dullard-like trust has created a belief in a risk free world. Courtesy of the banksters via creations like the Federal Reserve.  An organization that quickly failed and was then pushed aside by the ESF in 1934.  Since then we have been living off a continual debt based ponzi-scheme that transfers all the unsettled risk to the unwitting ponzi participants.  At least, as long as they can afford it, and news flash, news flash, they can’t anymore.  

So Trump is going to drain the swamp.  GOOD!   I have a suggestion, eliminate any toxic seepage of the unholy elimination of risk to free businesses, or the swamp will engulf us once again.  Build a damn parking lot over all of it.  Getting rid of symbolic political putzes and business crooks is all well and good, as it is easy to understand for the sheeple.  But while you are at the chest pounding, “Mr. T,” eliminate the sources as well.  Sources like the ESF and it’s current “stench” curators. The sheeple may not understand the ESF (more in detail later), but wise business negotiators understand the value of attempting to quarantine “risk” …….. whether it is possible or not.  That being said, when it is done via any corrupt source, it should be destroyed as it will eventually penalize the unaware.  Pave over the damned swamp, already.

The Wolf has had the privilege of sitting across the ‘lunch-time’ negotiation tables with some pretty diverse thinkers.  The smarter ones had some very interesting stories regarding their “business growing pains.”   The wiser ones were all describing, in some form or another the same thing; “proper business risk assessment,” and attempts at it’s elimination.   After weeding out the weak from the strong, the dullard from the bright, one thing was clearly universal to the Wolf’s lunchtime business observations.  The best anyone could expect was to temporarily quarantine risk.  And even then it’s just an illusion at best, with a big assist to your “lady-business-luck!”

For an example, and coming from one of the more successful in the real estate development world, check this out.  After nearly 15 years of being one of the Wolf’s key “lunch time think tank sounding boards,”  we had now both painted our version of a great ‘free-market’ picture.  It’s around 2005, and the lunchtime question is, how did you become successful and what brought you from the midwest to NC?  He said, “It was “dead” where he resided, and NC was just a hunch based on a variety of criteria.  Good schools, a growing financial area (Charlotte), and a growing modern industrial base (The Research Triangle Park) all of which seemed to reduce the start up costs and “risks” to my business pursuits.”  

I then asked why did you later diversify from being a successful residential builder to also providing real estate development?  His reply, “WG, once it was clear that NC was a good choice, the abundance of easy money made real estate development in the “Research Triangle” area a ‘no-brainer.’   WG, to put it simply, you had to be a moron not to make money in real estate over the last decade or so.   Then I added in a dose of 6 to 7 day work weeks, and that was all that was necessary from that point on to build a quality asset portfolio.”  

WG summary: First there was an initial attempt at the best educated guess possible for a new business location.  Therefore ‘risk-on,’ but try to put it on hold as best possible!  Once it was realized, that was achieved via the establishment of a quality level of “capital formation,” it was time to take advantage of the low risk environment and it’s apparent state of being temporarily quarantined.  In other words, take advantage of the easy money while it was available.  BTW, he was a cash only guy by this juncture, his references to easy money availability revolved around the potential client base getting easy money.

Finally, I joked with him by saying, and that is all it took, huh?  He smiles and said, nope, I got lucky as well.  True ‘risk-off’ situations don’t exist in a free market, there are no true entitlements, they are all just illusions.  Thank God.  That is, unless you pretend to act like God via a business concept (more later).  There ain’t but one risk free meeting place I know of for any of us…….

                                    When I die and they lay me to rest
                                    Gonna go to the place that's the best
                                    When I lay me down to die
                                    Goin' up to the spirit in the sky…Norman Greenbaum

But that doesn’t mean that the PPPTB (paper pushing powers that be) want to create a free market ‘risk-on’ environment for themselves, gutless wonders that they are.   A plus has no meaning without a minus, and easy money has no meaning without “BIG LOSSES!”  A concept that they understand all too well, I suspect, and they only want to be on a rigged positive side of the ledger.  Time for the news, and then as promised, a revisit to the ESF, and the real reason for it’s creation.  At least the Wolf Gray version of that reasoning. WG

                                                                News

In a continuation from the last installment it would appear that “perception” and “reality” are still fighting for center stage.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-18/us-manufacturing-output-stagnates-14th-straight-month-despite-surging-surveys

Yep, manufacturing sucks and yet business optimism is at or near all time highs.  Hmm, I detect a belief in the entitlement of a risk free world.  I tire of hearing this sort of ‘bs’ …. all ya have to do in the US junior is work hard and you can be what you want to be.   Incredible, and even more incredible that ain’t positive ‘bs’ for junior.  It is an honest belief per the western mindset!   Hard work may be an ingredient, but it doesn’t eliminate risk, even if guys like Tony Robbins say something to that effect.  And per the next link, Economic Mother Nature sounds her decree on reality vs. perception with some durable goods goodies……

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-27/durables-goods-hard-data-crushes-post-trump-soft-survey-dreams

And the business reality winner is…….?   There are none, but don’t tell those in the “all ya got to do is work hard and success follows” crowd in the USA …… check this out

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-27/consumers-confidence-highest-13-years

Want some reality, or want some diversification out of overly risky products?  Then check out the following paper dumping (this is a repeat btw)…..

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-18/china-sells-most-us-treasuries-2011

In this next link I can recall another of my Wolfpack business associates and his words of wisdom ringing true many years over.  Our wage base in the US, with respect to the rest of the world, will come down.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-18/what-wage-inflation-real-average-weekly-earnings-growth-plunges-weakest-30-months

In case you are wondering about the above trend, Trump can’t stop it.  How could he, at least at the onset ... with us being an import based economy, now intent on competing for market share?   Especially while our paper comes flooding ashore.  The Wolf has howled for months regarding the retail sector.  No one is listening……  

http://wolfstreet.com/2017/01/17/limited-stores-bankrupt-shutters-stores-while-tiffany-blames-trump-tower-for-weak-holiday-sales-american-apparel-shuts-down/

The fact that a retail ’beat-down’ per the above link is really hitting the high-end retailers is proof positive that the end game is nigh.  Preached now for slightly over a year, the "wanna-be's" have given up (last ponzi participants with money to offer).  You can't find a bigger sign of this trend than the retarded excuse making highlighted in the above link by Tiffany’s saying that Trump's security team is scaring away clients.  Yeah right, that is always the sort of solid business excuses you hear from ‘heads-up’ business execs when times seem “risk-free.”  Tip of the hat to Wolf Street for knocking the doors down on this one (again no affiliation).

And next up in the “what a surprise” category…….

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-19/us-government-caught-massively-fabricating-student-loan-default-data

Wow, who could have seen that one coming? The ever reliable government reporting agencies lying about the true level of defaults in the student loan arena.  Hey, want to bet me on the “over/under” for the true numbers for the ever wonderful auto loan’s failure/success ratio?  BTW, more on the auto industry below in the final thoughts segment to tie into ESF analysis.

I couldn’t resist posting this one even though it has nothing to do with the titled subject matter…..

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-19/washington-dc-turned-virtual-fortress-250000-protesters-descend-upon-city

Regarding the above link, is that really the sort of headlines you see with a society that has “risk by the tail?”

Next up, it would appear we must a have a UK fan of WG’s recent installments…..

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-18/worlds-largest-education-company-crashes-after-dire-warning-warns-unprecedented-busi

In the last line you can see Economic Mother Nature telling this business that it has to get a better handle on it’s risk assessment.  I suspect that has been a silent trend for some time with a variety of business venues.  A silence that can be evidenced by the facts, like all the business layoffs of late in a variety of industries.  Guess they didn’t have direct access to the ESF ‘risk-off’ team, note the following referenced excerpt…..

Pearson gets almost all its profit from education after already selling the Financial Times and its half of the Economist Group. The company announced a reorganization last year as it seeks to address sluggish demand in its main business. ZH

Typical, and while the paper world continues towards DOW 20,000 and beyond, the following keeps kicking us in the crotch…

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-25/caterpillar-posts-record-49-consecutive-months-declining-retail-sales

Speaking of paper digits that make us smile, and are claimed protections against any and all risks, check this out…..

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/dallas-pension-fiasco-just-beginning-jonathan-rochford?published=t

Folks regarding the above link, the 1974 ERISA Act’s associated creation of the PBGC “Pension Guarantee Benefit Corporation,” hasn’t a prayer of stemming the failure/risk tide building at the moment.  Once again, drawing upon the last installment’s theme, “perception vs. reality” seem to be miles and miles apart.  And by the by, “risk” and it’s elimination are not an entitlement.  If it were, we could all be business tycoons with huge incomes guaranteeing the repayment of our student & auto loans.   Somewhere I can hear Pat Morita, Mr. Miyagi saying “Risk-on, risk-off…risk-on, risk-off!”  Yeah, that’s the ticket.  Now all we have to do is time things perfectly or create our own personal ESF for ourselves.

If you don’t think US paper has become a “hot potato” then check out this article and it’s associated lead graph from Hugo Salinas Price……

http://www.plata.com.mx/Mplata/articulos/articlesFilt.asp?fiidarticulo=304

The dollar going once going twice, doesn’t anybody want to bid?  Yeah right, “WOULD YOU?”  Now in “the Trump is screwed” category check this out…..

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-20/buffett-says-america-will-work-fine-under-trump-overwhelmingly-supports-trumps-cabin

Yep, the welfare whore is letting his pro Trump voice be heard.  Wonder if he is doing that behind closed doors as well, since his energy rail transport world will take on the real “RISK” world full speed ahead thanks to the “Keystone Pipeline” revitalization?   ‘Risk-on’ Mr. Buffett!

                                             Don't keep insulting my intelligence....

It's all good, its all fine. After all, it is the last hard asset (hard asset my arse) in a western paper world to get slobber-knockered…. Yeah that’s right, real estate, check out this next link…..

https://goldsilver.com/blog/existing-home-sales-decline-back-to-2001-levels/

Regarding real estate, Wolf, why do you keep trashing it?  Not everybody is as astute to it’s weaknesses and it’s business cycles like my Wolfpack associate in the intro.  And for the record, he didn’t play the paper games, instead he took advantage of them.  He didn’t give them any paper “vig,” via loan interest, mortgage insurance, post sale derivative gaming casinos, and additional unnecessary insurance garbage protection rackets.  But don’t worry, if you plan on keeping up with the Jones’s until all else fails, (like the stats in the above link) just keep playing their game.  After all, real estate always goes up, don’t ya know?!  The bad news is that they, the PPPTB, are starting to lose at this game as well.  Want to stick it out in that supposed hard asset? Then go ahead and be my dumb-arsed guest.  GSBC’s anyone?  Gold & silver bars & coins…!

                                                         Final Thoughts

A return to a discussion of the auto industry was alluded to earlier, as it flows right into the ESF discussion in regards to proper “risk assessment.”   As referred to in the next link, Trump can bring jobs back to the auto industry all day long and work them all night.  They can be paid any amount of money (it will be for reduced wages I suspect), but if there ain't no market for these newly manufactured products, as in the last 'pigeon' to buy these depreciating forms of products have given up the debt ghost, then what is the end game with this expansion?  See the Zerohedge link below….

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-27/us-auto-industry-crisis-amid-inventory-bubble

Recall my real estate developer example in the intro.  He came to NC because he thought there would be a good market of buyers to come to the negotiation tables.   I know what, we can build inventory parking decks, now that’s infrastructure you can depend on.  Folks this is not to penalize Trump's efforts, but this is like jamming AMWAY down the throats of folks who have witnessed week after week and night after night of 'circle-drawings.'  A proper “debt-cleansing” in this case is still required in order to construct a natural free market framework.  Something on the order of a debt cleansing, something on the order of a paper cleansing, something on the order of an overindulgent standard of living cleansing, something on the order of a "RESET" ........ is required!   

It has to happen.  It will happen, hopefully soon.  It has to happen for real business to have any lasting value.  And I also get it, that from a “positive attitude perspective,” Trump can’t go around screaming “Oh shit we’re screwed!”  But the truth will have to see the light of day eventually.  For those of us in the west, this sort of event has to happen to make things right.  To settle the balance sheets, if you will.  Like it or lump it, there ain't no other proper ‘risk-on’ options for the west. 

Now it is truly unpopular to say these days, even among those paying attention to these business certainties, there are the following solutions ..... DHAP (diversified hard asset portfolio) heavily laced with GSBC's (gold & silver bars & coins).  These solutions just aren't in vogue anymore, possibly because we are ascending to a new plateau of paper awareness, DOW 20,000+.  Or possibly because we are just unaware and dumb as a "sack of hammers."   Hell, the latter would be worth more than the paper in your likely to be withheld paper statements.  I know, invest in GM, that will resolve your issues.  Or better yet, maybe parking decks for all the inventory to pile up.  “My kingdom for a buyer, even an unqualified buyer would do,” a phrase that might be heard in board rooms everywhere.

Now with real healthy risk nowhere in sight, the just “do-it” crowd has taken over.  After all, that is all that matters to us in the entitled success zone.   The truth is, risk is healthy, but I fully understand the need for working toward minimizing it as much as possible.  So let’s revisit the “risk master template” courtesy of the ESF.  Once again, I fully recommend that you listen to the entire 5 part series.  I have done it several times, and the info as you will see in a second, is so rapid fire that it requires a pause just to regroup your thoughts.  But for this installment’s purposes, just a look at part one, followed by a brief look into number two, will suffice.

As you listen to part 1 in this 5 part series, keep the following common sense business thought in the back of your minds.  "How has a century of dollar printing not impacted our inflation at home any more than it has, at least with regards to a standard of living decline?”  A thought that troubled the Wolf for decades until the summer of 2015. This video connected the “common business sense dots.”  Tip of the hat to Rob Kirby for bringing it to my attention via an interview he did.

@ :15... Here, references to the ESF doing covert operations are brought up.  The ESF is free of any governmental control, and is the most powerful economic entity in the world.  And the reason for all that is?  It is just necessary business, bad business that is, shrouded in a simple business reason to be defined in greater detail in a second.  Hint, it revolves around the control of the titled subject matter.

@ :40... The ESF was created by the gold reserve act of 1934 to protect the dollar, but the real motives behind it's creation I suspect have nothing to do with the dollar, instead "it's just business."  Detail in a moment with a Rosthchild assist.

@ 1:20... Here a WG long standing theory is endorsed:  ”The FED is nothing more than an additional neutered mouthpiece, like our politicians, to take the blame for any bankster failures.  It's been that way since 1934 when the wheels came off the original plans from the meeting at Jekyll Island in 1910."  What the hell else would you call it?  You can audit the hell out of the FED, but without shining a light on the real power broker of paper protectionism it is a bit meaningless.

@ 1:52... Note the modern day (2008) referencing of the cloak and dagger world that is the ESF, and the obvious signs of a "covert economic operative"....Hey, “covert economic operative” a new sort of "CEO," or is it?

@ 2:05... Make note of the executive powers tied to the ESF leadership.  One could say, "Yeah, so he says WG, where's the proof?”  How about in the "common business sense landscape" out there right now.  How about how Belgium and Ireland and many others just LOVE that US paper.  So much that they buy their full annual GDP's worth of US debt.  Ya think they got the chutzpah to pull that shit off by themselves?  Yeah right, instead there has to be an explanation with some common sense to back it. 

@ 2:30... Here we have some more WG theory endorsement.......The FED is a puppet.  Again, another endorsement.

@ 3:32..... And at this juncture, one clear minded honest person might ask, why is this allowed to happen?  If the ESF mandates were well publicized, "it wouldn't be allowed!"  Thus you have the brilliance of behind the curtain action, with the FED and the putzes in public office taking the blame.  BTW, don't waste your time trying to convince someone that this is happening.  They will not buy it.  Thus it’s my view we have a real need for the citizenry to see the swamp not just drained, but covered with an infrastructure parking lot!  With honest explanations to follow when the time is right.

@ 4:30... So ya think GSBC's will not be a worthwhile hard asset?  Then check the chart out.  The WG take on this is, they knew they couldn't keep inflation away any longer without passing along excessively higher tax levels to the public to cover the bad spending habits.  The public, ponzi-scheme dullards couldn't get wind of this, because it would result in a massive high volume sale in the farm implement section in the form of pitch forks & torches!  Hence, the common sense business need for a "dark money" source.  Hello to the ESF...!  BTW, I think this guy is pretty darn smart, and at a minimum, very well informed.  BTW, per Rob Kirby, he is no longer with us.

@ 4:50... Here the Wolf smells a common sense description of "corralling the masses while making fascism fashionable."  Again, it's just business, and an explanation will come later.

@ 5:30... The ESF nullified or scrapped the Federal Reserve System, I prefer "neutered."  But saved the almighty paper bankster systems.  Damn it, he does use the term "emasculated" though.

@ 6:35... Here we have a history on the "start up money" for the ESF.  And BTW, you can look these very facts up on a "google" search for the ESF.  This stuff isn't hidden, unless you are uninformed.  Say like a US Sixpack.  He also calls the ESF a "disaster."  I suppose that is true, but I beg to differ slightly, in truth, one has to consider the person defining the term disaster.  From a bankster perspective, one to be enriched at the "tax expense of others while enforcing dollar hegemony,” it has been a glowing "paper ponzi" success.  With a time limit I suppose, via the creations of Economic Mother Nature.

@ 7:35... Here a critical flaw in the ESF formation is addressed, "if it fails, we are screwed."  Recall an installment from nearly two years ago where we made mentioned that the head of the Treasury, Mr. Lew said we will not be there this time around to bail the system out (paraphrasing).  An important reason could be, that the dark money is drying up with an associated fear of exposure to the light of day.  WG take: he is indicating the sources of funds are being squashed.  Need corroborative evidence?  Hello CIPS, hello AIIB, hello "New Silk Road," hello the types of business activities conducted by wise business men and women facing a system on it's way OUT, and the need for a new alternative!  Hello out there to all those in the search for proper risk assessment.

@ 8:58... Reference to his great grandfather is made, and of note that he was a supposed guest at the clandestine 1910 Jekyll Island meeting.   So, this guy was an insider… I suspect via family discourse.

Time for the big why to the ESF, the big why to the ESF purposes, the big why to it’s business mandate.   Indeed why the need for it’s dark money?   Answer: “business…!”  Which begs the question, “what business?”  The successful continuation of the bankster king of business concepts, “Let me issue and control a nation's money and I care not who writes the laws.”   A successful ESF allows the seamless ‘continuation/control’ of the prior statement in it’s entirety, nothing more nothing less.  Risk containment complete!  Check out the intro of the following video……

It appears that the FED by itself couldn't keep the light of day off their own failures requiring future tax hikes and multiple inflationary disasters, thus the need for a more covert source of funding.  Meanwhile, the honest funding by taxation of the masses has to continue, or the dark money conduits would eventually stop.  Covert has no meaning without an honest counterpart.

Trump may shut down all kinds of "cabal" items, but I am waiting on the announcement of some real swamp draining wizardry.  Not temporary measures, measured in the short yearly terms of service defining an ordinary President (note Trump ain’t too ordinary thus far).  No, no, no.  Instead, permanent measures.  Burn the damn swamp, and build a parking lot.  Those damn guys currently in the swamp are bankster captured operations, and thus easy fall guys.  Punks, nothing more.  The FED, the political hacks, and the msm.  Great cheering to follow with "red white & blue pom-poms" for all sheeple in attendance.  I, for one, will cheer, but abstain from the pom-poms.  Abstain, that is, until some of the sources of swamp building are exposed and put on notice.  Hello ESF.  Then you can send me some pom-poms.

The aforementioned business concept is clearly still in use, once again: “Let me issue and control a nation's money and I care not who writes the laws.”  And that is all that matters to the controlling source.  From a western perch I remain somewhat unimpressed.  Unimpressed until the arseholes that live by that creed and live in a much more posh swamp are exterminated.  Now that is an event open and welcome to canine hard asset experts.

What does it all mean, whether it is defined one paragraph up, or two paragraphs up, or three paragraphs up, or elsewhere?  It means a DHAP (diversified hard asset portfolio), even though it is now unpopular to discuss, has never been more appropriate.  One heavily laden with GSBC's (gold & silver bars & coins).  I could be wrong, but I ain't.  Only event timing fools me, nothing more.  

If you feel scared, you ain’t alone.  There are some pretty big hitters that are running on a controlled risk assessment and a controlled fear, Putin/Russia and China.  Doing their jobs, doing what is logical.  Busy extracting themselves from the system, and to steal the term once again from Jim Sinclair, they are just exercising their rights to GOTS (get out of the system).  Wolf see …. Wolf do!  Roaring 20’s or “roaring 2010’s” you do as you see fit, but you have been warned once again. WG

                                      But I got to ramble (ramblin' man)
                                      Oh I got to gamble (gamblin' man)
                                      Got to got to ramble (ramblin' man)
                                      I was born a ramblin' gamblin' man
                                            
                                          Yeah yeah yeah yeah
                                          Bring it on, come down
                                      Yeah alright, here we go now now now
                                      I'm out of money, cause you know I need some
                                          Ain't around to lovin, and I must run
                                      Gotta keep moving, never gonna slow down
                                    You can have your funky world, see you 'round… Bob Seger
                         Good fortune favors those with a healthy dose of risk assessment…WG

                                            
                                                          Hard Asset Tip

Let’s quit wetting our pants over the fact that a guy is doing his job, for once.  Especially since the magic act will stop when the problems jump right out of our cool information devices and right into our living rooms.  Though I have to admit, the recent firing of the acting AG is quite therapeutic for a coughing, healing wolf.  Still, Trump is just doing his job.  What a concept!  

Hard asset tip …… Whether I am unpopular or not let’s keep it simple this time folks …… “GOLD & SILVER BARS & COINS!”

                
                God, then Your Family, then the Land of the Free and the Home of the Brave!
                                Survive then Thrive and We’ll Howl on the Other Side!

Wolf Gray

Credits to the thoughts of: Opie, Dixie, Team RM, The Wolfpack, ‘marketskeptics.com’ & Eric deCarbonnel, ZeroHedge, Wolf Street, ‘goldsilver.com’, Hugo Salinas Price, Jonathan Rochford, Norman Greenbaum & Bob Seger