Rumors of War with Russia, Part 11: Nuclear Deterrence -- Russians Conduct Nationwide Civil Defense Drills Involving Millions

As we wrote last week, we are skeptical that the neocons will finally put their chicken necks where their mouths are and muster the U.S. military to fight Russia directly in Syria, after Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff James Dunford poured cold water on several idiot Senators' notions of a magical no fly zone that doesn't lead to American pilots confronting Russian jets and SAMs. In addition to the CJCS expressing reluctance to go to war with Russia like his predecessor Martin Dempsey did in August 2013, there is a severe gap in the psychological conditioning of Americans for war versus that of the Russians.

Washington's anti-Russian propaganda campaign appears to be a mile wide and an inch deep in terms of impact. Most Americans seem to preoccupied with health or economic problems or who robbed Kim Kardashian in Paris to really pay all that close attention to the arguments on Fox News or MSNBC about why we need to go to war with Russia to save the children in east Aleppo -- especially when Washington isn't saving kids in Yemen from Saudi bombs made in the U.S. or UK. 

In contrast to the first Cold War, there appears to be little appetite among ordinary Americans or even much of the all-volunteer military for direct confrontation with Moscow. Unless of course, we've got to fight those evil Rooskies because they're supporting Donald J. Trump, and everyone knows The Donald is a sexist pig. Just ask Alicia Machado! And because we all know from the retired military and intelligence professionals supporting Hillary that Trump is a loon who despite being best buds with Putin, is way more likely to start a nuclear war than the 'we came, we saw, he died' cackling war hag! It is perhaps only in this way -- sleepwalking, sedated on porn, football, SSRIs and opiods -- that Americans can be dragged into a global war for reasons they don't understand in places they don't know anything about by and for globalists and jihadists who hate their guts. That at least is how the Russia Analyst fears it a global conflagration that escalates to nuclear weapons use could happen:

In 2003, Comedian Julian Morrow asked a dozen or so random people who the United States should bomb next. Most answered, Iran, North Korea or Russia, but a few mentioned Cuba, Italy and even Canada. One individual even said we should bomb France, because “They were not our allies [during the Iraq War].” None of the dozen or so shown in the interview said that we shouldn’t bomb anyone.

In 2015, decades after the Cold War ended, a videographer in California [Mark Dice] asked some random pedestrians to sign a petition urging President Obama to launch a preemptive nuclear strike on Russia, “to show Putin who is boss” and, amazingly, they signed it! When in response the television channel RT sent a representative into the streets of Moscow to get Muscovites to sign a petition to nuclear-bomb the US, most of them refused to sign and instead questioned his sanity. Apparently, Russians lack this death wish.

Americans seem to walk around in a fog, judging by the specimens Mark Dice finds to sign his hilarious petitions. Russians by contrast, are not so keen to sign a petition to nuke the United States knowing the consequences for their own nation and civilization [with English subtitles]

As Mexico-based American expat Fred Reed writes, the military industrial complex wants big, multi-billion dollar weapons systems and lots of promotions with cushy MIC jobs in retirement for generals and colonels. But it isn't too keen to see turkeys like the F-35 get shot down under combat conditions or AEGIS ships that supposedly can protect America's sitting duck carriers get sunk by comparatively cheap Russian or Chinese supersonic/hypersonic missiles in an actual war. If the neocons think the Russian contingent in Syria is vulnerable by fact of geography and long supply lines stretching around NATO member Turkey through Iran/Iraq and through the Bosporus that the Turks can easily cut off, it should be pointed out to them that NATO forces in the Baltics and especially Ukraine are similarly at the end of a long logistical lifeline that can be easily attacked by the Russians:

A martial principle of great wisdom says that military stupidity comes in three grades: Ordinarily stupid; really, really, really stupid; and fighting Russia. Think Charles XII at Poltava, Napoleon after Borodino, Adolf and Kursk.

Letting dilettantes, grifters, con men, pasty Neocons, bottle-blonde ruins, and corporations decide on war is insane. We have pseudo-masculine dwarves playing with things they do not understand. So far as I am aware, none of these fern-bar Clausewitzes has worn boots, been in a war, seen a war, or faces any chance of being in a war started by themselves. They brought us Iraq, Afghanistan, and Isis, and can’t win wars against goatherds with AKs. They are going to fight…Russia?

A point that the tofu ferocities of New York might bear in mind is that wars seldom turn out as expected, usually with godawful results. We do not know what would happen in a war with Russia. Permit me a tedious catalog to make this point. It is very worth making...

Now, if Washington accidentally or otherwise provoked a war with Russia in, say, the Baltics or the Ukraine, and actually used its own forces, where might this lead, given the Pentagon’s customary delusional optimism? A very serious possibility is a humiliating American defeat. The US has not faced a real enemy in a long time. In that time the armed forces have been feminized and social-justice warriorified, with countless officials having been appointed by Obama for reasons of race and sex. Training has been watered down to benefit girl soldiers, physical standards lowered, and the ranks of general officers filled with perfumed political princes. Russia is right there at the Baltic borders: location, location, location. Somebody said, “Amateurs think strategy, professionals think logistics.” Uh-huh. The Russians are not pansies and they are not primitive.

What would Washington do, what would New York make Washington do, having been handed its ass in a very public defeat? Huge egos would be in play, the credibility of the whole American empire. Could little Hillary Dillary Pumpkin Pie force NATO into a general war with Russia, or would the Neocons try to go it alone–with other people’s lives? (Russia also has borders with Eastern Europe, which connects to Western Europe. Do you suppose the Europeans would think of this?) Would Washington undertake, or try to undertake, the national mobilization that would be necessary to fight Russia in its backyard? Naval war? Nukes in desperation?

And, since Russia is not going to invade anybody unprovoked, Washington would have to attack. See above, the three forms of military stupidity.

The same danger exists incidentally with regard to a war with China in the South China Sea. The American Navy hasn’t fought a war in seventy years. It doesn’t know how well its armament works. The Chinese, who are not fools, have invested in weaponry specifically designed to defeat carrier battle groups. A carrier in smoking ruins would force Washington to start a wider war to save face, with unpredictable results. Can you name one American, other than the elites, who has anything to gain from war with China?

Instead, ramped up proxy warfare via 'moderate' jihadists, more Russian troops coming home in 'body bags' from Syria and terror attacks on Russian soil are threatened. The thought of course that covert and proxy wars go both ways -- and that Russia is more than capable of sending CIA officers or private military contractors inside Syria, eastern Ukraine or Saudi Arabia/Yemen aka the Houthis' happy hunting ground in 'body bags' too -- does not seem to matter to an increasingly desperate neolibcon Washington Establishment.

However, PolitRussia's Ruslan Ostashko did notice that State Department puke John Kirby's 'body bags' threat against Russia came after pro-Moscow and Iranian media reported on an alleged Kalibr cruise missile strike that took secretly took out an operations room full of U.S., British, Saudi/Qatari and Israeli spooks assisting the Syrian jihadists near the Turkish border. Ostashko suggested that Kirby's threat was about declaring that the U.S. would avenge its secretly killed assets in Syria without acknowledging that they had ever been there or that the Pentagon had deliberately targeted Syrian troops and perhaps Russian advisers at Deir Ez Zor prior to Russia's response:

There are persistent rumors among well-informed people involved in Russian politics that the Americans received an unexpected surprise in the form of their secret coordination center in Syria being bombed as a response to their recent bombardment of Syrian troops. This symmetrical response is given special intensity given that, according to unofficial information, this strike ended the lives of many American, Saudi, and Israeli officers who had long been working in Syria even though their presence was not officially recognized by anyone.

In these circumstances, they [the US] didn’t want to accuse Russia of doing something of the sort, but wanted to say something bad. And here Mr. Kirby, in such a sophisticated way, promised to avenge his fallen comrades. Let’s recall that Kirby is not a career diplomat, but a former soldier, so this version holds water.

Soon enough, there will be elections in the US, and many American officials really want to maintain their positions after the elections. As it turns out, many American, Latvian, Ukrainian, and Polish officials and politicians believe that if they say some horrible stuff about Russia, then the future Hillary Clinton administration will give them cookies, good positions, and many other bonuses.

So they’re trying to do what they can. Given that John Kirby does not give the impression of being a man endowed with intelligence and wit, the version that this “State Department secretary” tried to curry favor with the future Clinton administration seems to me to be very likely.

I understand that we usually associate such behavior with Ukrainian politicians, but, as I have said many times, the US is, unfortunately, turning into a larger Ukraine.

The sheer amount of jawboning and threats being issued everywhere from the State Department to Sen. John McInsane's War Street Journal op-eds do not seem to be matched by a build up demonstrating that an American strike on Assad's forces as well as the Russian air defense units protecting them is imminent. However, Moscow is taking additional steps to deter American aggression against Syria, by deploying the S-300V4 as well as other components of an integrated air defense system that operate via encrypted datalinks with the long range S400 battery at Kheimmim and shorter range Pantsir SAMs.

My friend The Saker believes this is again, not an indication that Russia wants war, but that it is stepping up its deterrence capacity as part of a strategy to race the costs of any American aggression on Syria and Russian forces to a politically unacceptable level. That is, not only would the U.S. risk widespread condemnation from weak or tottering allies across Europe, but also a backlash at home when the war turns out to cost dozens of pilots and scores if not hundreds of American servicemen in the Mideast their lives:

...the fact remains that US forces in Syria could become an obvious target for Russian retaliation, whether by cruise missile, gravity bombs or direct action operation by Russian special forces. The US also has several covert military installations in Syria, including at least one airfield with V-22 Osprey multi-mission tiltrotor aircraft.

Another interesting recent development has been the Fox News report that Russians are deploying S-300V (aka “SA-23 Gladiator anti-missile and anti-aircraft system”) in Syria. Check out this excellent article for a detailed discussion of the capabilities of this missile system. I will summarize it by saying that the S-300V can engage ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, very low RCS (“stealth”) aircraft and AWACS aircraft. This is an Army/Army Corps -level air defense system, well capable of defending most of the Syrian airspace, but also reach well into Turkey, Cyprus, the eastern Mediterranean and Lebanon. The powerful radars of this system could not only detect and engage US aircraft (including “stealth”) at a long distance, but they could also provide a tremendous help for the few Russian air superiority fighters by giving them a clear pictures of the skies and enemy aircraft by using encrypted datalinks.

Finally, US air doctrine is extremely dependent on the use of AWACS aircraft to guide and support US fighters. The S-300V will forces US/NATO AWACS to operate at a most uncomfortable distance. Between the longer-range radars of the Russian Sukhois, the radars on the Russian cruisers off the Syrian coast, and the S-300 and S-300V radars on the ground, the Russians will have a much better situational awareness than their US counterparts.

It appears that the Russians are trying hard to compensate for their numerical inferiority by deploying high-end systems for which the US has no real equivalent or good counter-measures.

There are basically two options of deterrence: denial, when you prevent your enemy from hitting his targets and retaliation, when you make the costs of an enemy attack unacceptably high for him. The Russians appear to be pursuing both tracks at the same time. We can thus summarize the Russian approach as such

1. Delay a confrontation as much as possible (buy time).

2. Try to keep any confrontation at the lowest possible escalatory level.

3. If possible, reply with asymmetrical/horizontal escalations. [to which the Russia Analyst would add here: make it clear to Washington that if the ‘moderate’ Syria jihadists get Stinger missiles, the Houthis who are killing Saudis and GCC coalition allies backed by the U.S. and UK get more advanced Russian or Iranian weaponry - JWS]

4. Rather then “prevail” against the US/NATO – make the costs of attack too high.

5. Try to put pressure on US “allies” in order to create tensions inside the Empire. [eg old or emerging alliances in Asia such as India, Japan, the Philippines, Central European nations like Hungary, Czech Republic or the PIIGS who suffer from EU if not NATO membership and Russia’s countersanctions - JWS]

6. Try to paralyze the USA on a political level by making the political costs of an attack too high-end.

7. Try to gradually create the conditions on the ground (Aleppo) to make a US attack futile [in other words, even if the U.S. can successfully take out Assad’s air force, it cannot strike the Syrian Arab Army sufficiently to stop the Aleppo offensive without losing A-10s and F-16s to low level air defenses - JWS]

Whether the Russians will have the will to use these air defense weapons if the U.S. attempts only 'limited' air strikes on Assad's forces as another test of Moscow's resolve remains to be seen. Writing for the Kuwait newspaper Al-Rai, Damascus and Beirut-based correspondent Elijah J. Magnier says on Twitter that Putin has assured his Syrian and Iranian allies that Russia is prepared to go all the way to defend its servicemen and allies in the country.

The Russians are also warning their population in far more stark terms and with a much higher audience acceptance that war is on the horizon -- while the neocons sell Americans on a fanciful standoff cruise missile war against Syria that will be just as low-casualty and easy as the air campaigns against Serbia (1999) or Libya (2011). For all their talk about martial virtues and the invincibility of America's military, the neocons certainly don't like to discuss the willingness of Americans as well as the Joint Chiefs themselves to accept casualties, or the fact that it won't be their children or neighbors in Reston, Virginia or Manhattan's Upper West Side coming back by the thousands in American flag-draped coffins from the Middle East or Ukraine in even a 'limited' war with Russia. It certainly wasn't their friends and neighbors who were the ones or who had family members dying in Iraq and Afghanistan after all:

Zvezda, a nationwide TV service run by the country’s Ministry of Defence, said last week, ‘Schizophrenics from America are sharpening nuclear weapons for Moscow.’

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday proposed a law suspending a Moscow-Washington agreement to dispose of weapons-grade plutonium.

Officials said on Friday that underground shelters had been built which could house 12 milion people – enough for the entire population of Moscow.

While Putin and the Russians await the big 'October Surprise' move by the Empire of Chaos/Exceptionalistan, whether proxy attack or false flag provocation (there are no doubt at this moment plenty of Ukrainian Right Sector/Azov Battalion members ready to dress up as 'Polite People' in green Russian Army uniforms to attack a police station or army base in the Baltics), Russia will continue arming and preparing. And the psychological preparations by the Russian State of its people and armed forces for a confrontation with Washington's increasingly erratic and desperate empire we've been observing since the 'Russian Spring' of 2014 will expand down to the village civil defense leader and stocking of school basements in Siberia level.

Moscow's rail and road mobile ICBM forces will continue to drill and test their readiness to rapidly disperse and then launch their weapons. Russia's western border missile troops will fine tune their Iskander launch response times in Kaliningrad. Russian corvettes will likely test fire Kalibr missiles perhaps in the Far East to send the signal that any American attack on Russian forces in Syria or on the Crimea or Kaliningrad could result in a counterstrike against U.S. soil, starting with Alaska. The VDV paratroopers, especially the legendary Pskov division, will likely remain on high alert, as Moscow deliberately allows radio chatter from exercises and indications of mobilization and reserve call ups to be picked up by U.S. low earth orbit satellites and NSA antennae in Eastern Europe.

'Polite People' vacationers will assist the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics in triangulating and silencing some of the Ukrainian guns shelling the breakaway LDNR with expert counterbattery fire. And if Russian servicemen and Wagner contractors must die in Syria because the neocons have decreed it, then watch out for a wave of 'Taliban suicide bombings' no one witnessed to explain the American special forces, CIA and son of Blackwater types coming back in coffins from Hasakah, Jizan, or Mariupol. World War IV will remain a rumor, but nonetheless, a rumor that involves real blood and real losses albeit kept in the shadows as they were during World War III.

The Bear will continue to sharpen its claws and show its teeth. And the rumors of war with Russia will continue, though without a decisive resolution until the financial time bombs set to go off start exploding, taking out the fiat engine of the Empire's war machine with them. Because as horrible as it may be, the inevitable financial collapse beats the alternative the Georgia Guidestone building Satanic globalists have planned for us:

Scene where the missiles hit Kansas and Missouri in 1983's 'The Day After'.