Alexander Dugin, the controversial Eurasianist ideologue, has lately shown a knack for being at important places in 'coincidentally' interesting times. According to his Dugin's Guideline YouTube video published by the Katehon think tank he leads, Dugin was speaking live to Tsargrad TV from Ankara on Friday July 15, just hours before the coup d'etat began against Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Was Alexandr Dugin Wittingly or Unwittingly Used by Russian Military Intelligence to Send a Signal to the Turkish Security Services That Moscow Had Their Back Amidst the Coup?
Dugin also mentioned in his video published five days ago that he met with Ankara Mayor Melih Gökçek, a longtime friend and key political ally of Erdogan's, just hours before coup plotters moved against the presidential palace and parliament. In the same video, Dugin said Gökçek admitted to him the existence of a large and very powerful 'parallel state' in Turkey, one run by followers of longtime CIA asset cleric Fethullah Gülen (whose nephew was arrested this weekend). It was this Gulenist parallel state that Gökçek blamed within hours of the coup for the shoot down of the Russian SU-24 fighter bomber last November, in a provocation aimed at getting the Russians and Turks at each other's throats and sabotaging Moscow's successful intervention on behalf of the legitimate government in Damascus. This meeting between Dugin, the son of a Soviet GRU intelligence officer and Gökçek, an outspoken critic of the American Ambassador and Embassy in Ankara well before the coup, was first reported in the English language as far as we can tell, by the excellent translations site Ft. Russ blogspot.
Dugin's video of July 18 was a kind of confirmation of, depending on your point of view, a synchronicity between Moscow's 'track 2 diplomacy' to patch things up with the Turkish elite and the coup; or quite probably a telltale trace (even before the Russians told Iranian media that they'd tipped Erdogan off) that Moscow's security services knew a coup was in the works. Given Dugin's family legacy involving the GRU (Main Intelligence Agency of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation/Гла́вное разве́дывательное управле́ние Генера́льного шта́ба), even if he himself had no idea what was about to transpire, his presence in Ankara and meeting with Erdogan's man the Ankara Mayor could have been a 'peace child' signal from the Russian Deep State to the Erdogan loyalists of Turkey's derin devlet. The logic being, Moscow wouldn't very well have greenlit a coup against Erdogan in cooperation with the Americans while its most famous Eurasianist ideologue was cooling his heels awaiting his flight to Moscow at the Ankara airport during its seizure by pro-coup soldiers! In our opinion Dugin's presence last week in Ankara, whether he had any inkling the coup was coming or not, was a gesture by the GRU to Turkey's MIT to confirm good faith and the authenticity of Moscow's tip-off regarding the planned putsch.
Erdogan's Ottoman and Stalin-Inspired Purge
With his 'flanks' from the Russians and Iranians' side secure, Erdogan has ruthlessly focused on the primary threat to his rule from internal enemies real or imagined. He's clearly exploiting the situation to further crack down on non-Gulenist/CIA asset secularists and Kurdish opponents of his increasingly authoritarian Islamist regime. The remark by Erdogan that the coup represented "a gift from Allah", as former MI6 agent Alastair Crooke observes, may have been a reference to the failed Janissaries coup against the Ottoman emperor of June 1826, which the Sultan Mahmud II used to crush the rebels and consolidate power.
Contrary to the analyses of some in the mainstream and alternative media, Erdogan did not instigate the coup as a false flag operation, but he caught wind of it very early in the game both from double agents within the plot and via confirmation of Turkish military men plotting from Russian signals intelligence produced by the GRU, quite possibly from Russian spy ships in the eastern Mediterranean or listening posts at the Khmeimim Air Base outside Latakia, Syria. This intelligence enabled Erdogan to essentially sabotage the coup and hijack it once it began for his own ends, which include a geopolitical 'pivot' that the generally pro-NATO/US/Israeli Turkish military would otherwise never accept.
Erdogan's purges, like Stalin's notorious purges of the Red Army in 1936-37, will bring younger, more ideologically committed and aggressive commanders rapid promotions. It will also, as retired Indian diplomat M.K. Badrakhumar notes, clear out many Turkish officers who partially owe their careers and prestige to interactions with the Israelis, Americans and NATO. allies like Britain or Germany. This means a twofold advantage to Turkey's Russian partners: the younger cadres are going to be less inclined to take any aggressive action outside Turkey's borders (the Greeks and Armenians in particular can probably breathe more sighs of relief about violations of Greek airspace by Turkish Air Force units gutted by the post-coup purges, or Turkish advisers with the Azeris in Ngorno-Karabkah) and (this is the key point), be more open to direct military cooperation with Russia, Iran and China than their purged predecessors. This is of course the reason why Secretary of State John Kerry has threatened Turkey with expulsion from NATO (to which many Erdogan supporters including Mayor Gökçek would respond: good, throw us in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization briar patch please!) and why we see a biographer of Attaturk like retired Army Lt. Col. Austin Bay so alarmed by Erdogan's purge.
Dugin and Other Russian Eurasianists, Like a Soviet Shock Army Commander, Seek to Exploit and Widen the Breach Between Washington and Ankara
Now that Erdogan 'owes' the Russians and Iranians, few pundits seem more pleased with the Moscow-Ankara rapprochement in full bloom than Alexandr Dugin, who has maintained that Turkey must be an integral part of a greater Eurasia opposed to American hegemony for over a decade. The week-long 'siege' of Incirlik Air Base, now lifted in the past 36 hours, was further confirmation that the breach between Washington and Ankara is not going to be easily or quickly patched over to the status quo ante, and Erdogan's talk of restoring the death penalty including for coup plotters he alleges have civilians' blood on their hands represents a semi-permanent breach with the European Union, which bans capital punishment for all present or prospective EU members (this is why the Ukrainian 'Deep State' prefers extrajudicial murder to messy show trials of pro-Russian dissidents and journalists). As the Atlanticists themselves admit in their publications, Erdogan's authoritarian grip and Turkish NATO membership presents the Alliance with a semi-permanent PR headache in Europe, a "so you say Putin's a dictator but keeping Erdogan in NATO is a-ok?" ongoing kick in the rear, 'whataboutist' or otherwise.
Not surprisingly, Katehon, the think tank Dugin leads via his regular YouTube videos and broadcasts via cable and Internet on Tsargrad TV, publishes articles like this to 'rub it in' and emphasize Turkish overtures to the Kremlin and broadsides against Washington
Will Moscow Now Abandon the Kurds? Or Find a Creative Way to Act as a Peacemaker Between Kurdish and Turkish Interests On Behalf of National Borders?
In case no one noticed even before the coup Katehon was categorically against the 'federalization' of Syria, meaning the establishment of a de facto autonomous Kurdish state called Rojava in the northern part of the country. And Katehon staked out this position despite the exploitation of Turkey's military for the ambush SU-24 shoot down and Ankara's intelligence and logistical support to the Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra jihadists fighting Assad's army. Opposing a greater Kurdistan that includes Rojava is of course, music to the Turks ears, since they recognize all hope of toppling Assad is gone and it is high time for Ankara to salvage what it can while it can out of its failed proxy war against Damascus.
The point is, the think tank like Moscow's elites as a whole have mostly maintained remarkable messaging discipline to keep the door open for Turkey, even as Levada Center polls showed most Russians after the November murder of their pilot considered the Erdogan regime to be an enemy (along with the U.S. and Ukrainian governments). Such discipline and keeping the eyes on the prize of an economically and militarily integrated (but national culture and sovereignty preserving) Eurasia that can stand up to the U.S. and push Washington's Atlanticists out of power in Europe, has been one of the factors in Moscow's success -- almost as much, we would argue, as the general mobilization of great Russian patriotism and China's overt and covert support for the Russian economy while it endures sanctions.
The Russians' 'Luck' Like For Everyone Else, is When Opportunity and Disciplined Preparation Meet -- Moscow Keeps Its Eyes on the Prize of a Peaceful Integrated Eurasia
No, the Russians did not create the Turkish coup, anymore than they created Donald Trump in some Lubyanka basement lab -- to hear the mainstream media's shrieking this weekend about Trump being Putin's man -- a trend Dugin mocks in the video below when he says neocons are using his words against the GOP presidential candidate. However, after maintaining superior intelligence, messaging discipline, and a clear geostrategic goal that attracts not only China but partners like Iran, India and Pakistan, there is no question that most Russian geo-strategists would agree with Dugin's assessment delivered below; that Moscow didn't start Cold War 2.0 but is slowly winning it. Or at least, that things aren't going so well for the Empire of Chaos/Exceptionalistan with the Turkish coup being the latest in a long string of setbacks and fiascos.
Trump as the Kremlin Candidate, National Review Cuckservatives and Kochs Exposing Their True Colors by Backing Hillary! and Other Signs of U.S./EU Establishment Panic
The 'dragon' (Dugin likes to use religious or apocalyptic metaphors, and that one is taken straight from the Book of Revelations) of Washington hegemony as he calls it, is undeniably wounded. The political establishment in the District of Corruption is in such panic mode over Hillary Clinton's melting down campaign and enormous unfavorable ratings, that they are labeling anyone and everyone exposing her corruption and the DNC's collusion against Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders as dupes if not assets of the Kremlin.
If you think I'm exaggerating on that point, see for yourself this hysterical 'Heat Street' article which creates a hysterical fit out of a few parenthesis and mostly consists of increasingly fanatical Establishment hacks tweeting to each other in a big circle jerk (pardon my language). And if you think the scam of the Republicrats and Democans false left/right paradigm isn't being exposed, check out this Zerohedge article about how the libertarian think tank world's leading sponsors, the Koch brothers, are now supporting - Hillary Clinton. One of the most anti-libertarian candidates to ever run for public office in terms of supporting nanny welfare statism, mass surveillance and warmongering, all the things libertarians especially Ron Paul supporters that the Kochs underwrote unalterably oppose.
Ultimately, whether you love or hate Dugin and think he's a Russian imperialist/fascist, he isn't wrong in his assessment on this point. The Anglo-American (or as my friend The Saker calls it, the Anglo-Zionist) Empire really is wounded and staggering around like a washed up, punch drunk boxer. Even the hardcore neocons and the weird subset of them who are Trotskyites like Michael D. Weiss and James Kirchick are in panic mode over Trump's rise and the nationalistic, anti-globalist forces The Donald represents. Love him or hate him, Dugin has every right to be optimistic about Moscow's diplomatic offensive while cautioning, as he does in the video below, that there is still the danger of a great conflict from Washington's refusal to face reality. - JWS
"We have said so much about Trump that the Democrats and demonic neoconservatives from The National Interest have even tried to use my positive comments about him and Moscow’s general sympathy towards this candidate in order to discredit him. They just haven’t been able to kick Trump out since he has been the obvious leader of the race."
"Oh, what kind of remnants of democracy there are in the US! But now I would like to speak not so much about Trump, whom we will return to later, but the US as a whole."
"What is the US doing today and what is its place in the modern world? This is not an idle question. We can see that the Americans and their global networks are still making themselves felt and continuing to interfere in the internal affairs of their allies, neutral countries, and even in their enemies’ countries."
"Literally just a few days ago, they tried to carry out a military coup in Turkey and provoke unrest in Armenia and Kazakhstan. However, it is becoming increasingly evident that they are much weaker than before. Washington tried to prevent Brexit, but failed. The Gulenist mutiny in Turkey also ended in failure. So, can we unequivocally state that the unipolar world has finished and that we live in a new, post-American world?"
"I think that such optimism would be premature. Washington cannot be written off yet."
"The end of the American world is a process extended over time. And it will undoubtedly drag on. It is difficult to say for how long, and the collapse of unipolar hegemony is a very dangerous period. I would call what is happening with America now a “wounded dragon.” This metaphor explains a lot, almost everything."
"Following the liquidation of the USSR and the Eastern camp, a unipolar model appeared in the world under which the American dragon reached the peak of its power. Networks of American agents of influence, most often in the form of liberal ideology, but also in more hidden forms mimicking local political and ideological trends, permeated society in practically all countries. The dragon infiltrated political elites, big business, education, the media, and sometimes security circles in European and Asian states."
"In Russia, pro-American forces almost openly dominated in the 1990’s, and only in the 2000’s did Putin begin to push aside their authority little by little. These networks spread into Islamic countries where their military wing became radical Islam, a true servant of the American dragon."
"But the dragon received a blow, or a series of blows, most likely fatal, at the height of its power. All of the countries which didn’t bow before American hegemony in the 1990’s and did not completely accept the unipolar model of the world as irreversible gradually came to form an informal club and began the process of resisting the dragon. China very carefully played with this line in trying to ride the tiger and carry out modernization and liberalization while preserving and even strengthening national sovereignty."
"At the beginning of the 2000’s, Russia began to follow this path. Iran occupied a similar position. Contemplative India tried to escape direct American diktat. Opposition began to form among the dragon’s followers in the EU, Turkey, and even among pro-American Salafi extremists. The most important is that the Americans, having obtained the historic chance to rule the entire world, simply couldn’t handle this task. Perhaps they did not have enough historical, imperial experience, intelligence, or resources. Hegemony overheated. The dragon was then wounded."
"Today, we are dealing with a globally wounded monster. The United States is still strong and its networks are still effective. Liberals, Islamic extremists, Atlanticists, and hidden agents of influence are still strong in different societies. But the peak of American dominance is behind us."
"The fact that the dragon is wounded became clear already in the early 2000’s when America ceased to impose even a semblance of order and aimed only for controlled, bloody chaos. Color revolutions, putsches, coups, and Western troops’ invasions of the Middle East and post-Soviet space are evidence of this."
"The essence of this is that the dragon is wounded. It is still strong and has the appearance of a power that knows its purpose. But in reality, he has gone mad from the pain of his collapsing rule. Hence why the US begins to behave so inappropriately in many cases."
"It strikes at its own servants, ruins what could be preserved, and painfully and disproportionally reacts to small attacks."
"This is extremely dangerous. The wounded dragon is equipped with nuclear weapons and all of its great power can still send all of humanity into the abyss with one blow."