Turkey is officially denying Russian allegations that the NATO member Muslim country is preparing to invade the territory of its neighbor Syria. A Turkish "source" told CNN last week that the Russians are just trying to divert attention from civilians suffering under Moscow's air strikes in support of the Syrian Arab Army's ongoing offensive north of Aleppo. The Turks' rebuttal came after Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov accused Ankara of making covert preparations along Turkey's southern border for military action against Syrian forces in the area -- implying that Russian drones and other forms of electronic surveillance had tracked a build up the Turks were unsuccessfully trying to hide from the world or even their American allies. https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/695933316055363585
Ft. Russ, translating Elijah J. Magnier of Kuwait's Al-Rai News: Russia is Preparing the Syrian Army to Repel Any Turkish Incursion
"Is War Imminent?" by Viktor Kuzovkov at ActualComment.ru and translated for Southfront.org
Meanwhile, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan spent much of his time during a tour of South America seeking trade deals for Turkish companies that have lost exports to Russia complaining about Russian air strikes allegedly targeting civilians. But Erdoğan's thuggish security guards grabbing women by their hair and necks after they called him a killer in Spanish over Turkey's repression of Kurds did him no favors in terms of his or Turkey's image in Latin America.
As roving Asia Times correspondent Pepe "Empire of Chaos" Escobar wrote for RT.com, the Turkish leader's strategy of toppling Assad or even establishing 'safe zones' in northern Syria via proxy is in tatters. If Erdoğan wants a piece of Syria as a haven for jihadists and to keep the supply lines open to the Islamic State, his army must fight for it. Otherwise the total collapse of Turkey (and by extension, Washington's) 'moderate' jihadi proxies looms, as does the isolation if not encirclement of the ISIS 'Caliphate' capitol in Raqqa.
Troubling Signals, But Not Yet 'All Systems Go' for a Russo-Turkish War Fought in Syria
While CNN dutifully reported the Turkish denials of any intent to roll armor and troops into northern Syria, on February 4 the U.S. State Department issued a curious travel warning against Americans visiting southeastern Turkey, citing an alleged heightened threat of terrorism (worse than members of the Islamic State freely going back and forth as they pleased in the area for the past two years you mean, dear Foggy Bottom?).
Never ones to allow their proxies to suffer humiliating defeats without at least some token acts of bluster, the Saudi Embassy in Washington D.C. issued this tweet, threatening to send Saudi troops into Syria to 'fight Daesh'. As longtime Rogue Money readers can imagine after reading here about Riyadh's disastrous war of aggression against impoverished Yemeni tribesmen, this tweet was greeted with a fair amount of trolling:
Secretary of Defense Ashton "Ash" Carter of course, welcomed the Saudis willingness to 'contribute', just days after complaining that U.S. allies weren't doing their part to fight Daesh (perhaps because, like Turkey and Saudi Arabia, they've been funding or arming the Daesh bags all along):
The U.S. Can't Count on Anyone But Turkey Invading Syria Without American Protection from Iranian and Russian Counterattacks -- and a Lame Duck President Obama Isn't the Guy to Provide It, So Forget About a 'Sunni Coalition of the Willing'
It is unclear if Secretary of Defense Ash tray really believes this nonsense about Saudi soldiers who ran away like Brave Sir Robin from battles with the Houthis being willing to take on Daesh -- and the battle hardened SAA/Hezbollah units that would surely oppose their presence inside Syria. The Russia Analyst's best guess is no.
However, SecDef Carter may wish to use Saudi troops and those of a few other Arab states to provide some sort of 'multilateral' fig leaf for Turkish aggression.
Unfortunately for the hopes of (don't call him Jimmy) Carter, since the Arab League already condemned Turkey's recent incursion into northern Iraq without Baghdad's consent as illegal under international law, SecDef Ash(tray) probably can't count on Saudi officers accompanying Turkish tankers invading Syria to mean anything, neither to the 'international community' nor to the SAA and the Russians.
Aside from the Sauds, only the government of U.S. ally and 5th Fleet host Bahrain and the UAE have announced so far that they're wiling to join in any Syria invasion. And any Bahraini and UAE contingent in Syria would be dependent on the U.S. for logistics as well as human shield protection from Russian or Iranian attack, as Syria has a 1980 mutual defense treaty established with Moscow that is still in effect, as well as a mutual defense pact with Iran *(from Israeli attack).
Without American troops to provide muscle and human shielding even this tiny sampling of an Arab 'coalition of the willing' to invade Syria may prove too difficult for SecDef Ash(tray) to keep together. As the UK Independent (owned by a former KGB agent turned oligarch) wrote, even the Saudis admit they will require a "consensus among coalition leaders" before acting:
On Thursday, Adel al Jubeir, the Saudi foreign minister, gave interviews to foreign media outlets. Surprisingly, he failed to make any mention of the proposed Syrian intervention.
This came, instead, later from a relatively junior official, Ahmed Asiri, a spokesman at the defence ministry. The statement was carefully worded. Saudi Arabia “is prepared to participate” in a ground operation in Syria, it said, “if there is consensus among coalition leaders”. In other words the Saudis would join a ground force rather than be one themselves.
There is a possibility that the Saudis may join the Turks if Ankara tries to set up a buffer zone, as they had proposed in the past, inside Syria. But such incursion may lead to clashes with the Kurdish YPG group, enemies of the Turks, but allies of the Americans against ISIS.
For their part, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps reaction to the latest Saudi threats has been "bring it on":
(CNN) - Saudi Arabia's fresh public willingness to send ground troops into Syria is drawing ridicule from the kingdom's chief regional rival.
The commander of Iran's revolutionary guard on Saturday mocked Saudi Arabia's declaration that it is prepared to commit ground troops to fight ISIS in war-torn Syria.
"They claim they will send troops (to Syria), but I don't think they will dare do so," Maj. Gen. Ali Jafari told reporters in Tehran, according to Iran's semiofficial Fars news agency. "They have a classic army and history tells us such armies stand no chance in fighting irregular resistance forces."
"This will be like a coup de grace for them. Apparently, they see no other way but this, and if this is the case, then their fate is sealed," Jafari added, according to Fars.
Since Turkey has spent the past several months sending a surge of humanity Europe's way as part of a cynical game to blackmail the EU if not Islamify Europe, the Turks are stuck with incompetent, proven to be piss poor in combat Saudi and Bahraini soldiers to accompany them in a Syria campaign. Despite claims of pending clarification at an upcoming NATO meeting, the Turks are unlikely to be accompanied by a single soldier from a NATO ally in this neo-Ottoman adventure. At best, a Turkish armored spearhead might be trailed by spooks or Blackwater types whose primary job would be to observe the performance of Russian weapons systems in actual combat against a NATO member.
All of this reminds us of the current joke going around in Ukraine that goes like this: a member of a pro-Kiev volunteer battalion gets asked, "Why are you fighting in Donbass?" "Because there are Russians there." "Why aren't you fighting against the occupation of Crimea, rather than sitting on your arse with this 'blockade' of the peninsula?" "Because there are Russians there."
At this rate, not even the hardcore Ukro-Nazis may wish to sign up for actual combat operations that run the risk of firefights with Russian spetsnaz or getting incinerated by a SU-34 strike. At the most, Ukraine's contribution to a Turkish war against Russia would probably consist of providing the Russian speaking intelligence officers from the SBU that NATO would not loan out to Ankara -- and these would stay safely inside Turkey, far from the front lines along the Euphrates.
What the Weasely Turks Are Most Likely to Do --Stepped Up Border Provocations and Harassment of Russian/Syrian Aircraft
We think retired Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) analyst Patrick Lang (Col USA ret) put it well this past week, when he wrote:
It appears to me that Kerry and Erdogan now realise that the latest Syrian offensive signals the beginning of the end for their fictional moderate, democratic rebels who are not really jihadists, just misunderstood.
The Peace talks? They remind me of Napoleon III trying to "negotiate" with Moltke and Bismarck after the French were defeated at Sedan. What cards do the rebels have to play - "The gratitude of the Syrian people?".
What Kerry and Erdogan are now probably doing is contemplating what a reunified, jihadist free, Syria is going to look like along with a resurgent, sorry, I mean "emboldened", Russia, Hezbollah and Iran. My opinion is that they are going to remake the Middle East to the detriment of Israel and Saudi Arabia.
The question then becomes whether Turkey and the U.S. are going to permit that. There are suggestions on another thread that Turkey may try to take military action in Syria under the "responsibility to protect" mantra. I do not see that as a winning military strategy unless the U.S. and NATO can be prevailed upon to support such a venture. Are we stupid enough to do that?
Yes, with all due respect to the retired Army Green Berets Colonel Patrick Lang, I think 'we' by which I mean the Empire's triumphalist, semi-autistic human sub-zoological experiments in Washington D.C. could be that stupid. At least judging by The Washington Post op-ed page, and GOP presidential candidates like Florida's U.S. Senator Marco Rubio and ex-Governor Jeb "please clap" Bush who were positively ecstatic last November about the Turks shooting down a Russian plane and murdering the parachuting pilot. But neocons and failing presidential candidates aside, the primary question is the one asked by Al-Masdar News "Is Erdoğan Mad Enough to Invade Syria?" For now, so long as Barack Hussein Obama is President of the United States, the answer would appear to be 'no' (as Rogue Money godfather "W" the Intelligence Insider likes to say, Chicken Legs is not the one you go to war with -- that's probably the next President who won't be Donald Trump or Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders).
The Turks won't invade Syria without at least covert U.S. backing in the form of intelligence and logistics support, plus diplomatic smoke blowing about how "Russia's bombing of Syrian civilians provoked this [Turkish] reaction" by Obama's crazy eyed interventionist Ambassador Samantha Power at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). The consensus among Russia-Turkey watchers we've read is that Ankara's military will refuse to risk their power and prestige on an invasion of Syria that could quickly turn into a bloody debacle. Particularly in the wake of the neo-Ottoman Sultan's purge of the Turkish Army's high command in the last decade, can he really count on the generals and colonels to stay loyal as casualties mount against enemies far more potent than the PKK or YPG? We doubt it. Instead, Ankara may try more harassment of the SAA through cross border artillery strikes, tests of Russian air defense systems/electronic jamming capabilities and playing chicken with the Russians by using armed F-16s flying aggressively up to the border (but not QUITE over it) and trying to radar lock on to Russian or Syrian jets.
SU-35s, AWACS and Ground Radars on Latakia Mountain Tops: How Russia is Trying to Protect Its Forces from Turkish Ambush Tactics Along the Border
Thanks to the reporting of Al Rai's Elijah J. Magnier and the team at the Ft. Russ blog, we know Moscow has taken steps to deter such aggressive moves by the Turks. As we wrote in a previous post here at RM, Magnier detailed how the Russians have modernized Syria's MiG-29 fleet and added better long range radars and R-77 missiles to their armament. As my friend Andre Raevsky aka The Saker points out in a Friday post at his blog, this gives Moscow plausible deniability if a Turkish F-16 gets blown out of the sky. The Kremlin can use its re-arming of the Syrian Air Force to create political cover for EU politicians and reluctant NATO members (Greece, Czech Republic, Hungary cough cough) who would question whether a Turkish F-16 was downed by the driver of a Syrian MiG-29, or a Russian SU-35 pilot.
Another heartburn inducing development for the Turkish Air Force, reported by both Southfront and Ft. Russ, is that the Russian Air Force has sent A-50 AWACS plane/s to Syria in order to be able to more effectively spot F-16s loitering at lower altitudes close to the Syrian border. That means any Turkish F-16 driver attempting to repeat the ambush tactics the Turks used against a Russian Su-24 on November 24th could be in for a bad day, when they fire their AMRAAM missiles and turn to retreat deeper into Turkish air space, only to get an S400 fired from Latakia topping out at Mach 8+ in the butt. For how can the Turks and for that matter their U.S./NATO 'colleagues' be so certain that the latest generation of Russian AWACS planes are incapable of sending homing signals on a target to the latest generation of Russian SAMs? That would be a particularly nasty surprise, to pair up the long range search capabilities of an airborne radar at 40,000 fleet with the hypersonic speed and 250+ km range of the S400s in northern Latakia!
According to the Russian Defense Ministry channel Zvezda (Star) TV, Moscow's SU-35s deployed to Syria come equipped with the "Khibiny-M" electronic jamming pod that is designed to make beyond visual range (BVR) radar guided missiles like the AMRAAM miss due to 'ghosting' or overloading their seeker heads with too many phantom targets. The Khibiny-M shares the same name as the system that Russian propagandists claimed was installed on an older model SU-24 that allegedly shut down the combat information systems and radars on the USS Donald Cook in the Black Sea off Crimea, back in April 2014.
So even if Mustafa the F-16 driver gets off his missiles while supposedly defending "NATO airspace" from alleged "Russian aggression", there's no guarantee the AMRAAMs will hit their intended targets -- or that Erdoğan's latest hero pilot will make it back alive from tangling with Mother Russia's finest operational fighter jets. But these are the kind of weasely tactics, like firing artillery at the SAA across the border and then calling Syrian counter-battery fire "Russian aggression", that we can rate as highly probable from the ISIS aiding neo-Ottoman Sultan.
Doing much more than that risks exposing Turkish pilots, troops and armor to crushing counterattack in northern Syria, without Erdoğan being able to go crying to NATO and the Atlantic Council/MSM shills that Russia has shot down an American ally's planes in "NATO airspace" (as if NATO is no longer an alliance of supposedly sovereign nations, but a transnational global military empire). Which brings us to our next topic in this post: psyops. As in Russian allegations that new TV programs depicting their country as aggressors against NATO member nations are precisely that, psyops.
Calling Up 'W' -- Is the Big Mideast War the Intelligence Insider Has Been Warning RogueMoney Listeners/Readers About at Hand? Is this the Russo-Turkish World War Event Elder Paisos of Athos Prophesied? Or is It All Mideast Conflict Theater to Distract from Financial Collapse?
Is the constant drumbeat of "Russia + aggression" and "Russia + war" operating at the conscious and subliminal levels in the mainstream and social media platforms a psychological smokescreen for anticipated near term military moves, like the expendable Turks going for broke in Syria? Do the Russians perceive BBC2 airing a docudrama about Moscow invading NATO member Latvia as a sign of gathering U.S. aggression, or just more of the same old Cold War 2 paranoia we've been subject to since the Maidan coup d'etat and the return of Crimea to Russia? Or is all this propaganda and boasting of quadrupling the amount of American defense spending devoted to Europe just a toxic brew of election year war-mongering politics, spiked with fears of Washington losing its death grip on the Continent due to Russia sanctions and immi-destabilization fatigue?
Seeking answers to these troubling questions, on Thursday night the Russia Analyst called up Team Rogue Money's 'godfather', 'W' the Intelligence Insider. We told him that we haven't seen the 'war with Russia' propaganda ramped up to such hysterical levels in Western and especially British mainstream media since the downing of MH17 in July 2014.
In a separate email to 'W' and the Guerrilla, we also mentioned how the war propaganda is even managing to seep into ads for financial services, with one online brokerage posing two actors speaking to each other about "Russia shooting down a NATO plane" as an event that had driven down the stock market by over 2% in a video ad. The sense of the surreal we felt over seeing such an ad in an elevator in the financial district of the major Midwestern city where we live and work was so intense, we wondered if we'd hallucinated the mention of "Russia" and "NATO" in this near-subliminal ad.
The trailer from the new British BBC2 docudrama about an imagined World War III between NATO and Russia starting in...Latvia, of all places
War Propaganda vs Russia is Hitting a Fever Pitch -- A Sign of Imminent Action or Distraction as Part of the Globalists' Magick Act?
On the telephone, we mentioned to "W" the BBC2 docudrama "In the War Room" that aired this past week depicting a Russian invasion of Latvia escalating to a nuclear strike on British ships in the Baltic. We talked about Russia's highly publicized build up of SU-35 air superiority jets and S400 surface to air missiles as possible signals from Putin to deter the Turks and more importantly, get Washington to restrain Ankara from any rash moves to save its jihadist proxies from defeat. We also brought up Dr. Henry Kissinger's highly publicized meeting this week with Putin at the Russian President's official residence at Novo-Ogaryovo just west of Moscow. Was the lifelong globalist and Rockefeller family consigliere Kissinger being dispatched to convey a message to Putin -- a message of sufficient importance or sensitivity that it could only be conveyed face to face?
A Russian language segment about the BBC2 docudrama "In the War Room" with English language excerpts dubbed into Russian
What we forgot to mention to "W" in the same context but could have, is the recent Russian/alternative media chatter about Undersecretary of State Victoria Nuland (husband to Obama and multiple GOP candidates foreign policy advisor Robert Kagan) threatening Putin's trusted envoy Vladislav Yurievich Surkov with war and supposedly ranting about Putin the "f---ing tsar". From former British barrister turned commentator Alexander Mercouris, writing for Russia Insider and The Saker blog:
The official line from the Russians is that the meeting was a “brainstorming” session aimed at finding ways round the obstacles holding up implementation of the Minsk II Agreement.
That scarcely makes sense. How can a solution to a conflict like the one in Ukraine be found through “brainstorming”?
There have also been some very strange stories about Nuland’s behaviour at the meeting.
Supposedly she turned up to the meeting in a state of great agitation, warning a presumably baffled Surkov – with the FSB listening in – that “war is coming”, calling Putin “a f…..g tsar”, and talking luridly of plots in the US to do away with her and with the President.
Although Agent "W" did not confirm or deny our thesis that Europeans and especially Britons are being bombarded with propaganda about an imminent threat from Russia. "W" couldn't tell us whether this is preparation for an aggressive act by a NATO member towards the Russian contingent in Syria. But "W" did hint at major events brewing around the last week of October 2016, an 'October surprise' in the world markets just before the U.S. presidential elections. "W" also suggested but made no guarantees that the timing for the biggest market shaking events planned for later this year was not quite right, and that the planets and numerology of the elites needed to align in certain terms first.
Hammer blows: the SAA backed by Russian airpower is now starting to advance more rapidly and threaten jihadist-controlled border crossings. Thousands of civilians as well as military age males who may have abandoned their heavy weapons are fleeing to the Turkish border crossings
The Turks Are Running Out of Time, and Globalists May Not Be Able to Use Erdoğan as an Expendable Pawn Soon the Way They Used Saddam
However, if the globalists really do plan to use a Russia-Turkey war as the curtain raiser for markets Götterdämmerung, then in the Russia Analyst's military opinion they'd need to do it sooner rather than later -- before the Russians have the opportunity to arm the Syrian and Iranian militaries to the teeth and have them sitting victorious on the Turkish border. As we have documented here at RogueMoney, Erdoğan may not have until October before his jihadist proxies are routed from northern Syria. Their supply lines are being cut off by a Russian/Syrian/Kurdish alliance. There are reports that the Kurdish YPG that Erdoğan swore to bomb if they crossed the Euphrates river to cut rebel supply lines have now done so, confident that Mother Russia owns the skies over northern Syria.
If Erdoğan wishes to save Turkey's grandly dubbed 'Army of Conquest', the CIA's so-called 'Free Syrian Army' TOW jihadis, the Al-Qaeda loyalist Jabhat-al-Nusra, or the logistical lifelines to the Islamic State's capital in Raqqa, he may have to act soon. Which brings us back to the question of: what did Putin and Kissinger discuss in their meeting last week? Was Putin handed his "instructions" from the globalists on what to do next? Or was Kissinger, of whom Putin speaks highly, simply conducting back channel shuttle diplomacy on Washington's behalf? Perhaps both?
In light of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff revolting against a planned U.S. military attack on Syria in August 2013, will the U.S. 'Deep State' back Erdoğan, or disavow him? Are there good people inside the Pentagon and intelligence agencies who will leak and expose any New World Order plans for American troops to be provided to the Turks as human shields for their aggression, and thus block the 4th or 5th attempt (depending on who's counting, according to "W" to drastically escalate the war in Syria)? We certainly hope so!
Out of gas: with supply routes cut Syrian jihadists may soon start running out of fuel for their Toyota Hillux pick ups aka sweet jihadi rides
Not a good week at the Bild boobs and propagandastaffel offices for #JihadiJulian...
The Team RM Conclusion: Stay Frosty Friends and Watch for Big Mideast Events and European Fighting in the Streets to Be Used as Cover for NIRP, Bank Bail-Ins, or Similar Financial Mayhem as the Globalists Accelerate their 'Great Work' New World Order Agenda
After having to conclude our plus 20 minute telephone conversation with "W" Thursday night, we couldn't help but feel a nagging sense of unease in the pit our stomach. "W" did not provide definitive answers, but we came away feeling like a clever student in Newtonian high school physics being given a primer on Quantum Mechanics and Quarks 101. As "W" always says on multiple appearances both on Guerrilla Radio and the John B. Wells program, the globalists fancy themselves magicians. Theirs is a magic act, and the politicians they direct -- including Vladimir Putin, in "W"'s estimation -- are actors on an elaborate stage.
While the world may be stunned at the recklessness of Erdoğan or the technological tooth and claw of an angry unleashed Russian Bear, whatever wider war planned for the Mideast has plenty of ulterior motives. It will be, in the words of Jay Dyer (of JaysAnalysis.com) another researcher whose patterns of argumentation often run parallel to those of "W", an act of alchemy through destruction...matter meeting anti-matter...the Third Rome and champion of the Orthodox Christian world (now apparently in serious talks with The Vatican, judging by Friday's stunning announcement that Patriarch Kirill of Moscow and All the Russias will meet the Pope in Cuba on Abraham Lincoln's birthday, February 12) clashing with the neo-Ottomans who would be caliphs of Islam, rising to conquer Europe...
This footage from the video game Battlefield 3 released in October 2011 depicts fictional combat between Russians and Americans inside Iran...
While the alternative media will be caught up in the fireworks in the Mideast, the globalists will quietly usher in their negative interest rates policy across the entire Western world if possible, while also pushing their war on cash agenda to close all avenues for escape. To those who have ears to hear and eyes to see, precious metals, food, barter items and for the tech savvy bitcoin will all beckon as exits from the fiat system before the doors to the sacrificial chamber are shut, and the great monetary bonfire begins.
Enjoy the Super Bowl friends, and watch out for the esoteric winks and nods in the Coldplay/Beyonce/Bruno Mars (the Roman god of war) halftime show...
I [the Western bankers - JWS] used to rule the world Seas would rise when I gave the word Now in the morning I sleep alone Sweep the streets I used to own
I used to roll the dice Feel the fear in my enemy's eyes Listened as the crowd would sing Now the old king is dead long live the king One minute I held the key Next the walls were closed on me And I discovered that my castles stand Upon pillars of salt and pillars of sand
I hear Jerusalem bells a-ringing Roman cavalry choirs are singing Be my mirror, my sword and shield My missionaries in a foreign field For some reason I can't explain Once you'd gone there was never Never an honest word And that was when I ruled the world
It was a wicked and wild wind Blew down the doors to let me in Shattered windows and the sound of drums People couldn't believe what I'd become Revolutionaries wait For my head on a silver plate Just a puppet on a lonely string Oh who would ever want to be king?
I hear Jerusalem bells a-ringing Roman cavalry choirs are singing Be my mirror, my sword and shield My missionaries in a foreign field For some reason I can't explain I know St Peter won't call my name Never an honest word But that was when I ruled the world
Oh oh oh oh ohh oh
Hear Jerusalem bells a-ringing Roman cavalry choirs are singing Be my mirror, my sword and shield My missionaries in a foreign field For some reason I can't explain I know St Peter won't call my name Never an honest word But that was when I ruled the world